EUROPEAN OPEN: ASML NA raises guidance; RIO LN Q2 copper output falls; CFR FP sales beat; DHER GY confirms UBER talks; BOL FP interest in LION; ROP SW unveils Alzheimer’s trial

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities start the mid-week session mixed. Overnight, APAC stocks rose after cooler US inflation data reduced Fed rate hike bets, helping to improve sentiment towards AI-linked shares; SK Hynix rose sharply, and other Asian semis also gained amid renewed investor buying. In the European morning, numbers from ASML have helped to support indices after it raised its FY outlook citing AI propelling demand.
• Crude futures continue to ascend, with Brent above USD 85/bbl, after the surge over the last two sessions, as US President Trump threatened further strikes on Iran, including potential hits on power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran returns to negotiations.
• Gold fell, with bullion entering European trade around USD 4,035/oz as reports of potential wider US strikes on Iran renewed inflation concerns, partially offsetting Tuesday’s gains after softer-than-expected US CPI in June.
• China’s GDP slowed to its weakest pace in more than three years, with growth easing to 4.3% Y/Y in Q2 (exp. 4.4%, prev. 5%), below the official target range of 4.5-5.0%; the GDP deflator turned positive for the first time in three years, rising 1.6% in Q2, as higher oil prices ended a record streak of deflation.
• ECB’s Kocher said the central bank is ready to take action at any time, if needed, and added that the ECB will do what is needed to bring inflation to 2% in medium-term; he sees no second round effects seen currently. ECB’s Cipollone said that he is not currently seeing second round inflation effects, adding that he monitors inflation expectations “very closely”.
• In the UK, advisers to incoming PM Andy Burnham are divided over whether to appoint Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as Chancellor, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. While some on the Labour left expected Miliband to get the role, a second faction within Burnham’s team is strongly arguing against the appointment, with growing belief he will not receive the chancellorship. Meanwhile, the FT reports that Miliband’s opponents in the Labour Party believe he has failed in his bid to become Chancellor, with current Home Secretary Mahmoud seen by some MPs as the favourite to take the role.
• Of note for the German manufacturing sector, Low Rhine river water levels are forcing vessels to reduce loads, raising transport costs and disrupting manufacturers including Thyssenkrupp (TKA GY) and BASF (BAS GY); a 2018 comparable episode cost Germany approximately 0.4% of GDP. Elsewhere, Germany is set to approve a new package of measures today which aims to save businesses and citizens EUR 600mln per year; planned measures include replacing some in-person appointments with video calls, digitalising healthcare processes and exempting EVs from displaying environmental stickers.
• Spanish inflation metrics for June were unrevised at 3.2% Y/Y (exp. 3.2%).
• On the slate today, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver the second part of his testimonies to Congress, appearing before the Senate; the wider Fed speakers docket is also busy, with the likes of Williams, Musalem, Warsh and Cook set to give remarks. US PPI metrics are also due. In Europe, industrial production data is set to be published. The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged. Notable earnings due for release include: United Airlines (UAL), BlackRock (BLK), Elevance (ELV), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS).

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: ASML (ASML NA) raised FY sales guidance for the second time this year, as increased AI spending boosted demand for its chipmaking gear; it now expects net sales of EUR 43-45bln (prev. saw 36-40bln). TomTom (TOM2 NA) returned to operating profit in Q2, reporting EBIT of EUR 8.5mln (exp. EUR 8mln), revenue EUR 134.6mln (exp. EUR 135mln), with operating margin turning positive at 6%; it confirmed its FY revenue outlook of EUR 495-555mln (exp. EUR 546.5mln), and guided for a return to revenue growth from 2027. Nokia (NOKIA FH) will sell an AI-RAN solution from 2027 through its Nvidia (NVDA) partnership.
• MATERIALS: Rio Tinto’s (RIO LN) Q2 copper output fell 7% vs Q1 after unplanned shutdowns at its Kennecott operation in Utah forced a furnace rebuild; its iron ore business recovered from weather-related disruptions earlier in the year; FY copper guidance and Pilbara iron ore shipment and sales guidance was left unchanged. Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reported Q2 copper production of 142K tonnes (exp. 156.4K), copper sales of 267.8K tonnes (prev. 324K Y/Y), gold production of 92.8K ounces (prev. 91.2K) and molybdenum production of 6.1K tonnes (prev. 7.4K Y/Y); it maintained FY guidance, and expects higher copper output through year-end.
• CONSUMER: Richemont (CFR FP) Q1 sales were up +20% (exp. 11%), jewellery division sales +24%; specialist watchmakers +8%; its Americas sales rose +27%, with growth seen across all regions, including a returning to growth in the Middle East and Africa. Reports said that the results underscores Richemont’s resilience relative to broader luxury sector peers amid Chinese demand weakness and Middle East disruption. Delivery Hero (DHER GY) confirmed it is in advanced negotiations with Uber (UBER) on a potential takeover offer. Barratt Redrow (BTRW LN) reported FY26 home completions of 17.7K (+5% Y/Y), adj. items of approximately GBP 159mln (prev. GBP 275.9mln Y/Y); it targets 17.7K-18.2K home sales in FY27, sees minimal house price inflation, and launched a new share buyback of approximately GBP 386mln.
• FINANCIALS: SEB (SEBA SS) reported Q2 NII of SEK 10.69bln (exp. SEK 10.49bln), driven by lending growth, stable to rising policy rates and Markets business contribution; fees and commission income, at SEK 7.19bln, also topped expectations. It completed a SEK 1.25bln share buyback, and has initiated a new programme of the same size. Of note for payment names, Stripe and Advent submitted a joint offer to acquire PayPal (PYPL) for over USD 53bln (a 28% premium to Tuesday’s close), according to Reuters; PayPal has not yet responded to the approach, which was first made in early April.
• ENERGY: Aker BP (AKRBP NO) Q2 revenue USD 3.68bln (exp. 3.65bln), EBITDA 3.35bn (exp. 3.25bln); it raised its 2026 capex guidance to USD 6.8-7.2bln, and also nudged up the low end of its 2026 production view to 380-400K boepd.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Lionsgate Studios (LION) is exploring a sale after attracting interest from Bollore (BOL FP) and Banijay; Lionsgate is valued at about USD 3.8bln, and is assessing approaches with advisors; no deal is certain. Airtel Africa (AAF LN) is reportedly hiring more investment banks to work on a London listing for its mobile money business, with Citi (C) leading work on the deal that could value the unit at around GBP 7.5bln.
• HEALTHCARE: Roche (ROP SW) unveiled plans for its PrevenTRON Alzheimer’s disease trial, which will recruit 1,600 people and use its experimental trontinemab antibody; the FDA also granted priority review for Gazyva for primary membranous nephropathy.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Savills (SVS LN) initiated with Buy rating at Berenberg; Mycronic (MYCR SS) upgraded at SEB; Evotec (EVT GY) downgraded at TD Cowen.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone May industrial production is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.1%). In North America, US June PPI metrics are expected to see the headline unchanged M/M (prev. 1.1%), with the annual rate seen cooling to 6.2% Y/Y (prev. 6.5%); core (ex-food, energy, trade) is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.8%), with the annual rate seen easing to 5.0% Y/Y (prev. 5.1%). Elsewhere, the NY Fed Manufacturing gauge for July (prev. 5.70) is due.
• CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%, and there will be a press conference with Governor Macklem after the announcement. Fed Chair Warsh testifies to the US Senate, following his testimony to the House on Tuesday; Fed’s Williams (voter), Cook (voter) and Musalem (2028 voter) are also due to make remarks today. In the afternoon, the Fed will publish its Beige Book. Elsewhere, ECB’s Nagel and BoE’s Pill will give remarks.
• SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 3.0bln across of 2054, 2056 and 2052 debt.
• ENERGY: EIA weekly energy inventories due; afterhours on Tuesday, the weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a smaller than expected draw of -0.6mln bbls (exp. -2.7mln), Cushing posted a build of +0.2mln bbls, distillates stocks saw a larger than expected build of +2.3mln bbls (exp. +1.0mln), and gasoline inventories saw a surprise draw of -1.7mln bbls (exp. +0.6mln).
• EARNINGS: Notable US Corporates reporting today include: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), BlackRock (BLK), Elevance (ELV), Cintas (CTAS), PNC Financial (PNC), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), United Airlines (UAL), J.B. Hunt (JBHT).
• PRIMER - WARSH SENATE TESTIMONY (15:00BST/10:00EDT): Fed Chair Warsh (voter) will give testimony to the Senate. At his House testimony on Tuesday, Warsh said the FOMC has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” describing soft June CPI as “one data point” he did not want to overread, adding that while the decline was better than expected, “mission accomplished” had not yet been reached. He said the FOMC’s job is to ensure short-term price changes do not broaden out, and flagged that both the size and duration of the Fed’s balance sheet are worthy of review. He hinted that interest rates are among the tools available to curb inflation, saying the Fed would have a “good family fight” about the extent and timing of deploying them. He is expected to echo these remarks to the Senate. 
• PRIMER – BOC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (14:45BST/09:45EDT): The BoC is expected to hold rates at 2.25%. Policymakers are comfortable that the current rate is sufficient to contain inflation, adopting a wait-and-see approach amid Middle East uncertainty and trade policy volatility. Governor Macklem has noted little pass-through from higher oil prices to broader goods and services prices, while renewed Hormuz tensions leave the inflation outlook uncertain. Newsquawk’s full BoC preview can be accessed here.