EUROPEAN OPEN: AZN LN ended BMY takeover talks after share drop; BP/ LN plans Cocuina gas field stake sale; EXO NA now allowed to raise PHIA NA stake; AI FP oxygen deal faces UK CMA scrutiny; TEG GY expects FFO at upper-end of range

EUROPEAN OPEN:

1. European equities have started around flat/higher, with sectors mixed. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed following a lacklustre lead from Wall Street, while conditions were thinned due to the Japanese holiday closures. The KOSPI climbed alongside a rebound in tech, with notable gains in Samsung; Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre after the PBoC opted for zero liquidity operations, though the downside in mainland stocks was cushioned following prior reports that China issued the first new round of consumption vouchers aimed at boosting spending.
2. Oil held gains as President Trump’s new demands on Iran clouded prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Brent traded near USD 89/bbl, while WTI has risen above USD 83/bbl. Trump demanded reparations from Iran as negotiations over reopening the Strait continued, while Iran seeks compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade, and release of frozen assets. Analysts said that the hardened positions reduced any prospects for an immediate deal. Crude prices saw further upside ahead of the European start following news of maritime incident in Bab al-Mandab, with a ship (reportedly a Saudi vessel) was targeted by the Yemeni army.
3. Gold rose above USD 4,400/oz to a two-month high ahead of US inflation data due Wednesday, supported by technical buying and Chinese gold backed ETF inflows., but has slipped beneath that level in recent trade after the geopolitical reports. Aluminium rose to its highest since June as stalled US-Iran negotiations prolonged concerns over Middle Eastern supply constraints. Bloomberg notes that LME inventories are near their lowest since November 1990; Norsk Hydro has recently warned the annual global supply deficit could exceed 900K tonnes if Hormuz trade does not normalise.
4. In central banks, the RBA held its Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, in a unanimous decision; the board said policy remains somewhat restrictive, and further hikes are possible if inflation risks rise. CPI forecasts were trimmed, GDP forecasts were also nudged higher. Governor Bullock said the board discussed only holding or raising rates, reiterating that a hike remains possible if inflation risks persist. The BoJ may consider another rate hike at its 18th September policy meeting after raising rates in June, sources told JIJI.
5. In the UK, BRC retail sales rose 1.0% Y/Y in July (exp. 1.5%; prev. 1.7%) as extreme heat kept consumers at home. Non-food sales -0.7%, their first decline since April, as shoppers deferred big-ticket purchases. England’s World Cup run supported food sales, while affordable clothing and small indulgences saw firm demand.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

1. HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) had reached a serious stage in talks over a mostly share-based acquisition of BMY by AstraZeneca at a premium, with an announcement targeted for mid-August, FT reports; AstraZeneca’s board subsequently issued an order to terminate discussions after its shares fell over 9% on 3rd August, following the initial report detailing the potential merger. Philips (PHIA NA) and Exor (EXO NA) updated their long-term relationship agreement, allowing Exor to increase its stake in Philips to up to 22% of issued ordinary shares and voting rights from the previous 20% cap. Exor could raise its holding further with Philips Supervisory Board approval. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares fell almost 7% in extended trading after a much wider-than-expected quarterly loss and pressure on margins from its shift towards branded weight-loss drugs and international expansion outweighed a raised revenue outlook.
2. INDUSTRIALS: Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said logistics operations in parts of Colombia are disrupted following an earthquake; terminal operations in Buenaventura have been temporarily suspended.
3. ENERGY: BP (BP / LN) plans to sell a 20% stake in Venezuela’s Cocuina gas field to Trinidad’s National Gas Company, according to sources cited by Reuters; a final investment decision could be made by the end of the year.
4. MATERIALS: A Glencore (GLEN LN)-backed consortium is seeking to take control of Sherritt International, which operates North America’s only significant cobalt refinery, FT reports. Salzgitter (SZG GY) H1 2026 revenue EUR 4.59bln (prev. 4.66bln Y/Y), EBITDA EUR 277.7mln (prev. 116.8mln Y/Y). Aurubis contributed EUR 193mln, while the P28 programme added EUR 97mln; sees FY26 sales around EUR 10bln, adj. EBITDA between EUR 725-825mln, adj. EBT of EUR 325-425mln. The UK CMA regulator is seeking views on Vivisol’s planned acquisition of Air Liquide’s (AI FP) home oxygen services business; a formal investigation has not yet been launched.
5. CONSUMER: Of note for UK tobacco and gambling names, UK PM Burnham outlined plans to make it easier for councils to block new betting shops and require vape shops and adult gaming centres to obtain planning permission; the government will also tighten the definition of vape shops to prevent businesses avoiding restrictions by presenting themselves as general convenience stores. InterContinental Hotels (IHG LN) H1 2026 revenue USD 2.66bln (exp. 2.67bln), operating profit of USD 671mln (prev. 623mln Y/Y); Q2 global RevPAR +4.1%, Americas RevPAR +4.8%, Greater China +3.1%. IHG said it remains on track to return over USD 1.2bln to shareholders in 2026.
6. FINANCIALS: Santander (SAN SM) announced a share buyback programme of EUR 1.825bln, set to begin August 24th.
7. REAL ESTATE: TAG Immobilien (TEG GY) H1 rental income EUR 196.6mln (prev. 184.2mln), net income EUR 114.5mln (prev. 151.1mln), FFO/shr 0.53 (prev. 0.52); confirmed its FY26 outlook, now expects FFO at the upper end of its guidance range.
8. TECH: Intel (INTC) sought to increase its share sale to about USD 20bln with an over-allotment option (from an initially touted USD 15bln), Bloomberg reports; the offering has reportedly attracted more than USD 100bln in demand. Pricing is expected around USD 95/shr+ (vs closing price of USD 97.52/shr on Monday).
9. NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: RBC initiates BAE Systems (BA/ LN) with Sector Perform, Thales (HO FP) with Outperform, Rheinmetall (RHM GY) with Outperform. Outokumpu (OUT1V FH) upgraded at JPMorgan; Saab (SAABB SS) upgraded at Barclays. Carl Zeiss (AFX GY) downgraded at UBS; Legal & General (LGEN LN) downgraded at Goldman Sachs.

DAY AHEAD:

1. DATA: In Europe, the UK BRC retail sales monitor is seen easing to 1.5% Y/Y (prev. 1.7%); Italy June trade balance (prev. EUR 4.793bln). In North America, US existing home sales are expected to ease to 4.04mln (prev. 4.09mln); NFIB business optimism (prev. 97.4); weekly US ADP employment data are due (prev. 15.0K).
2. SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 6bln of 2031 Bobls; US sells USD 58bln of 3-year notes.
3. ENERGY: After hours the API will publish weekly energy inventory data.
4. EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: Lumentum Holdings (LITE), Cardinal Health (CAH), CoreWeave (CRWV), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), On Holding (ONON).