Swedish NIER Economic Forecasts: Raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% (prev. 2.2%), maintains 2027 GDP growth; Maintains 2026 CPIF, cuts 2027 CPIF to 2.2% (prev. 2.1%)

Forecast rounds from the NIER are a recurring second-tier input for SEK and Swedish rates, read chiefly as a cross-check on the Riksbank's own projections rather than as a market-moving print in their own right; on past occasions the bank's reaction function, not the forecaster's, has set the front end. The upward revision to 2026 growth with 2027 unchanged points to an earlier pull-forward of activity rather than a faster trend, a distinction that matters for how much tightening tolerance the central bank retains. On inflation the headline is internally inconsistent, describing a cut to 2027 CPIF while the numbers shown move it higher; that wording is worth treating with caution until the underlying release clarifies direction. A firmer growth path alongside CPIF near or slightly above target in the out year is the combination that has historically kept the Riksbank cautious on easing, transmitted through the krona's rate differential against the euro and the front of the SEK curve rather than the long end. The follow-ons are the Riksbank's next projection round and whether board members echo or dismiss the stronger growth read, since consensus forecasters' revisions of this size have rarely shifted policy on their own.