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EUROPEAN OPEN: AZN LN ends Phase 3 volrustomig lung trial; SDZ SW expands biosimilar partnership with Henlius; JPM warns UK against raising bank taxes; STLAM IM considers Ontario plant closure and sale; GLEN LN unit secures USD 1bln KEXIM loan

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Iranian Foreign Ministry says that there are ongoing contacts with Qatar, which is playing an influential role in de-escalation efforts, Al Arabiya reports; Iran did not submit any letter to parliament to halt the Strait of Hormuz management plan

Yemeni government forces say Houthi militias launched a new attack with two missiles in Bab al-Mandab, Al Hadath reports

EUROPEAN OPEN: AZN LN ends Phase 3 volrustomig lung trial; SDZ SW expands biosimilar partnership with Henlius; JPM warns UK against raising bank taxes; STLAM IM considers Ontario plant closure and sale; GLEN LN unit secures USD 1bln KEXIM loan

Alphabet (GOOGL) aims to raise AUD 5bln in an Australian bond offering

European Movers: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) +1.3%, Glencore (GLEN LN) +2.3%, Sandoz (SDZ SW) +3%, Argenx (ARGX BB) +8.2%

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EUROPEAN OPEN

  • European equities have started the week flat/higher. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed amid geopolitical uncertainty ahead of the expiry of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire. Investors also assessed numerous earnings reports and fresh economic data. South Korean markets were closed for Liberation Day.
  • Crude futures fluctuated as fighting in Lebanon, vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran negotiations clouded the supply outlook. After gains of around 6% last week, Brent prices are trading flat around USD 88.50/bbl as Europe enters, with WTI trading slightly softer, around USD 81/bbl.
  • The 60-day US-Iran Islamabad MoU reaches its deadline today. Iran said there is no ceasefire to extend, as the US already violated the agreement. WSJ reports that Iran’s leadership used the two months following the June MoU to prepare for an expanded confrontation rather than pursue a deal; steps include giving the IRGC greater control over the regular army, appointing hardened veterans to key posts, ramping up missile and drone production, and coordinating with allied militias in Yemen and Iraq to extend the battlefield to the Red Sea. Fresh US measures against Iran are expected to be announced this week. Bloomberg says that options include: sanctions on Chinese entities financing Iranian oil purchases, targeting exchange houses used to repatriate funds, imposing secondary sanctions on third-party trading partners, confiscating overseas assets, and expanding action against Iran’s shadow fleet.
  • In FX, the USD weakened, and US Treasuries have inched up, underpinned by recent soft US data (retail sales missed, NFP disappointed, and annualised inflation cooled), which has reduced Fed hike expectations. Gold has risen towards USD 4,400/oz amid the weaker US data, while bullion is also being supported by recent central bank buying.
  • Copper prices rose towards a record as near-term supply dynamics tightened; Bloomberg notes that LME spot copper traded at the widest backwardation vs three-month contracts since 2021, as LME inventories recently fell to just above 200K tonnes.
  • In ratings news, Fitch affirmed the UK at AA-, stable outlook; the rating agency said its view is underpinned by the UK’s high-income, diversified economy, credible macro policy framework, deep capital markets, GBP’s reserve-currency role and strong governance; meanwhile, risks centre on high and rising debt, elevated interest costs, slower fiscal consolidation, weak growth and possible fiscal-rule loosening. Fitch warned that a weaker growth outlook or steeper debt trajectory could trigger downgrade pressure.
  • France PM Lecornu will hold a crisis meeting on Monday over a cyberattack on the General Directorate of Public Finance. The breach exposed data from 678K individual and business tax accounts, including taxable income, withholding rates and property information. A judicial investigation is under way, with affected taxpayers to be notified from Monday.

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • FINANCIALS: Of note for UK banks, JPMorgan (JPM) chief Dimon reportedly warned UK Chancellor Healey against raising taxes on banks in a call last week, citing the risk of driving away jobs and capital; the warning comes as PM Burnham’s government leaves open the possibility of increasing bank levies in its October budget. Germany’s private pension pot is set to double to approximately EUR 500bln over the coming decade under a reform taking effect on 1st January 2027, replacing the low-return Riester system with subsidised brokerage accounts investing in ETFs and private markets, Bloomberg reports. S&P Global has estimated the reform will unlock EUR 26-56bln in additional annual inflows after an initial on-boarding period. Asset managers including DWS (DWS GY), JPMorgan (JPM), Vanguard and BlackRock (BLK) are racing to have products ready ahead of the launch. PayPal (PYPL) is in talks to sell itself to a group comprising Stripe and private equity firm Advent International, WSJ reported late Friday. Stripe and Advent proposed USD 60.50/shr in July, valuing PayPal at approximately USD 53bln, which PayPal deemed insufficient; the two sides have since been negotiating a higher price since.
  • INDUSTRIALS: The MoD is increasing scrutiny of UK defence supply chains after a routine cyber vulnerability assessment revealed that K3 Scout naval drones, made by Kraken Technology Group and used by the Royal Navy, had been transmitting signals to China, Bloomberg reports.
  • MATERIALS: Korea Eximbank announced it will lend USD 1bln to a Swiss subsidiary of Glencore (GLEN LN) to facilitate copper supply to South Korean companies.
  • CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Of note for UK homebuilders, Rightmove home asking prices fell by -2.0% M/M in August (prev. -1.0%), and by -1.0% Y/Y (prev. -0.4%), marking the sharpest monthly August decline since 2018, and the steepest annual fall since December 2023. The average asking price stands at GBP 364,999, with available homes at a 12-year seasonal high. Rightmove also revised its 2026 price forecast to flat to -2.0% (from a previously expected +2.0% rise). Of note for the UK hospitality sector, UK Housing Minister Rayner will announce planning-policy changes making it harder for developers to close pubs unless there is no reasonable prospect of keeping them open. Stellantis (STLAM IM) has notified Canadian union Unifor that it is considering closing its Ontario plant and putting it up for sale, citing the impact of US tariffs. Geely Automobile (0175 HK) Q2 profit rose 36% to CNY 4.9bln, matching estimates; revenue increased 15% to CNY 89.8bln. H1 profit was down 1.8% to CNY 9.09bln (exp. 7.1bln), on sales of CNY 173.6bln (exp. 179.5bln). Exports more than doubled to 474,228 vehicles in H1, helping offset a 20% decline in Chinese car sales. Aston Martin (AML LN) unveiled a new supercar priced at around GBP 1.5mln.
  • HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) is discontinuing the Phase 3 eVOLVE-Lung02 trial of volrustomig plus chemotherapy as a first-line therapy after the IDMC concluded the combination was unlikely to meet either primary endpoint of progression-free survival or overall survival. Sandoz (SDZ SW) announced a development, manufacturing and commercialisation collaboration with Shanghai Henlius Biotech covering up to 10 biosimilars, with an initial group of assets already agreed.
  • TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI are nearing a deal to finance a large-scale data centre campus in Ohio, with Nvidia’s financial guarantee reduced from USD 250bln to under USD 120bln to address investor concerns over risk exposure. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the Trump administration opposes Apple (AAPL) using Chinese memory chips, as the iPhone maker tests chips from CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies amid shortages and rising prices.
  • NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Ryanair (RYA ID) initiated with Overweight rating at Morgan Stanley; UMG (UMG NA) reinitiated with Buy at Citi

DAY AHEAD

  • EVENTS: France PM Lecornu will hold a crisis meeting on Monday over a cyberattack on the General Directorate of Public Finance.
  • DATA: In North America, Canada July CPI is seen easing to 2.6% Y/Y (prev. 2.8%), core CPI is expected at 2.0% Y/Y (prev. 2.1%). In the US, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due (prev. 15.60), as well as the NAHB housing market index (prev. 34); in later trade, TIC flows data will be released.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: ECB chief economist Lane (dovish) participates in a panel on Europe’s defence build-up and its macroeconomic, fiscal and financial stability implications.
  • ENERGY: WTI September 2026 options expire.
  • WEEK AHEAD: Fresh US measures against Iran are expected to be announced this week. Notable releases include: FOMC meeting minutes, global flash PMIs, UK jobs data, inflation reports from Japan, Canada and the UK. Notable corporates due to report earnings this week includes: Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Alibaba (BABA), Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Deere (DE), Lowe’s (LOW), Ross Stores (ROST), Target (TGT), Keysight (KEYS), Baidu (BIDU), Estee Lauder (EL).
  • Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
  • Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly corporate earnings estimates.

Context

A European open wrap of this breadth does not fit a single taxonomy bucket; the dominant driver is the US-Iran ceasefire deadline and the flagged fresh US measures, which puts the tape in classic geopolitical risk-watch mode. Episodes built around expiring truces and threatened sanctions on Iranian oil flows have historically transmitted through crude first, with the tell being whether physical market stress, freight and insurance costs, and Strait of Hormuz traffic, confirms the headline risk rather than the rhetoric alone; the named options, secondary sanctions on third-party buyers and action against the shadow fleet, are the versions that bite hardest on supply. The copper backwardation and record-low LME inventories are a separate, micro-driven story, a distinction worth holding since it is not geopolitical. On the stock-specific side, the JPM intervention on UK bank taxation follows the established pattern of large lenders lobbying publicly ahead of a budget, where the eventual levy decision has typically been the repricing event for the domestic bank peer set rather than the warning itself. The volrustomig discontinuation fits the usual single-asset Phase 3 read-across, confined to the programme and its mechanism peers, while the Glencore offtake-style financing continues the pattern of state export-credit agencies securing copper supply chains. The calendar follow-ons are the Iran measures, FOMC minutes against a softening US data run that has already lowered Fed expectations, flash PMIs, and Canada CPI today.

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