Turkish Auto Sales (Jul YY) -25.0% (Prev. -11.4%)

Turkish auto sales are among the earliest high-frequency reads on domestic demand, and a deepening year-on-year contraction of this kind is consistent with the pattern seen in past tightening episodes, where credit-sensitive purchases are the first component to roll over once policy rates and loan pricing bite. In those cycles the sequence has typically run from vehicle and durable sales into broader consumption, then import volumes, with the current account and the lira's carry backdrop following with a lag. The distinction worth drawing is between a rate-driven demand squeeze, which supports the disinflation and rebalancing narrative the central bank has historically sought in such phases, and a confidence shock, which tends to show up simultaneously in survey data and FX deposit behaviour. Base effects matter here: prior-year comparisons in Turkey have been distorted by episodes of pre-buying ahead of tax and price changes, so the composition across passenger and commercial vehicles carries as much signal as the headline. Follow-ons worth noting are the concurrent credit growth figures, consumer confidence, and how the demand data sits against the central bank's stated tightening or easing stance at the time. As a second-tier release, it rarely moves TRY on its own but feeds the domestic demand input into the rates path.