EUROPEAN OPEN: BARC LN sounds out investors on Shutterfly debt refinance; SW FP cuts FY outlook; HOLN SW upgraded at GS; VOW3 GY to end Tennessee ID.4 production in April; GLEN LN raises Commonwealth LNG offtake to 3mln tons annually; US CPI data ahead

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started Friday mixed, though futures for both the Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 remain on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 extended its winning run to seven sessions, lifted by optimism over a US-Iran peace deal, with the Dow turning positive for 2026. Asian equities also rose ahead of weekend talks in Islamabad, where a US delegation led by VP Vance is due to meet Iranian officials. The diplomatic picture remains complicated, however: President Trump said he was “optimistic” about a deal, but threatened Tehran over reported fees being levied on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran was doing a “poor job” allowing energy supplies to flow despite ceasefire commitments. He also asked Israeli PM Netanyahu to scale back attacks on Lebanon, amid concerns the fighting could undermine negotiations – a view echoed by both Iran and ceasefire mediator Pakistan, who have described Israel’s Lebanon offensive as a truce violation. Oil rose for a second consecutive session after Saudi Arabia said attacks on energy infrastructure had reduced its production capacity, with Brent climbing above USD 96/bbl and WTI above USD 98/bbl. Despite the rebound, both benchmarks remain on course for their largest weekly loss since June, following Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement. Capital Economics expects the unusual WTI premium over Brent, which reflects near-term supply tightness, to normalise in the coming months if the ceasefire holds. Gold steadied around USD 4,755/oz, on track for a third straight weekly gain, supported by central bank buying and diplomatic hopes. Critical Metals’ CEO cautioned that bullion could face pressure if oil prices rebound materially, stoking inflation concerns and rate expectations. In data, China’s factory deflation ended after more than three years, with PPI rising 0.5% Y/Y in March (exp. 0.4%), as surging energy costs snapped the deflationary streak. Final German CPI for March was confirmed at 2.7% Y/Y (vs prev. 1.9%). BRC said UK retail footfall rose 2.4% Y/Y in the five weeks to 4th April, missing expectations; it warned that Easter-driven momentum may not persist given April tax rises, wage increases and higher energy costs. Elsewhere, Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court is set to rule this year on whether tax rules limiting stock loss offsets to stock gains only are constitutional, per Handelsblatt.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In financials, Barclays (BARC LN) is sounding out investors to refinance Shutterfly’s debt after private credit talks stalled, with bonds potentially paying a low double-digit yield; Apollo (APO), which backs the photo-sharing company, is expected to extend its unsecured debt holdings as part of the transaction. UniCredit (UCG IM) is reportedly looking to fully exit Russia and surrender its banking licence, with asset sales and staff cuts already underway, Kommersant said; the structure would yield significantly more than the around 10% of capital the bank would have received from an outright sale of its Russian business. UBS Group (UBSG SW) has declined to hand over privileged documents related to Credit Suisse’s handling of Nazi-linked accounts to the probe after a New York judge declined to shield the bank from future lawsuits that disclosure could trigger. In materials, Glencore (GLEN LN) and Mercuria agreed to increase LNG purchases under 20yr deals with Kimmeridge Energy Management’s proposed Commonwealth LNG terminal in Louisiana; Glencore will buy 3mln tons annually (+50% from its initial deal), while Mercuria’s offtake rises to 1.5mln tons per year (from 1mln). In industrials, Airbus (AIR FP) delivered 60 aircraft in March (vs 35 in February), bringing Q1 deliveries -16% Y/Y at 114 jets, hampered by fuselage panel supply problems and engine shortages; Airbus sold 408 aircraft in Q1 (398 net of cancellations), and is targeting 870 deliveries for the FY. A one-day cabin crew strike at Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GY) and regional carrier Lufthansa CityLine is set to cancel more than 520 flights on Friday, affecting around 90k passengers across German airports, according to airport industry group ADV. Sodexo (SW FP) cut its FY outlook after a new CEO review revealed operational challenges; now sees organic revenue growth of 0.5-1% (prev. saw 1.5-2.5%), after H1 net profit fell to EUR 188mln (prev. 434mln). In consumer sectors, Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) will reportedly stop producing its ID.4 electric crossover at its Tennessee plant in mid-April, ending US production of its only American-made EV, as the plant prepares to transition to the 2027 model year Atlas SUV. Kering (KER FP) will ask shareholders to approve the appointment of Marie-Helene Chenut, a three-decade Chanel veteran, and Laurent Kleitman, CEO of Mandarin Oriental, to its board, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. In real estate, Unite Group (UTG LN) reiterates guidance for occupancy and rental growth at the lower end of its target ranges, adding that it is progressing a GBP 300-400mln disposal programme, with GBP 130mln completed or agreed, and has nearly completed a GBP 100mln share buyback, with further repurchases planned. In notable broker updates, Holcim (HOLN SW) upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Alstom (ALO FP) upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux; Nokia (NOKIA FH) was downgraded at Danske Bank.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Today’s docket is dominated by the US CPI data for March, where analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.9% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate to jump to 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%); core inflation is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual rate is expected at 2.7% Y/Y (prev. 2.5%); see belowfor our primer. Canada will release job data for March, where the employment change is expected to rise by +15k (prev. -84k), though the jobless rate is seen ticking up to 6.8% (from 6.7%). Prelim University of Michigan sentiment data is likely to see its three main indices cool, while inflation expectations are seen picking up. The US federal budget data for March will be released in later trade. February factory orders will also be released. In energy, Baker Hughes will release its weekly rig count data in the afternoon. In major central bank speak, only ECB VP de Guindos is scheduled, though a text is not expected. In supply, Italy will sell EUR 6.25-8.0bln of 2029, 2033 and 2041 debt. Afterhours, potential rating reviews are due from Moody’s on France (Aa3), S&P on the UK (AA), and Scope Ratings on Hungary (BBB).
• PRIMER - US CPI (13:30BST/08:30EDT): Headline CPI is expected to reaccelerate in March, driven largely by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict and the related rise in energy and commodity prices. Headline CPI is seen rising 0.9% M/M (prev. 0.3%), with the annual rate rising to 3.3% (from 2.4%); core inflation is seen steadier at about 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%) and 2.7% Y/Y (from 2.5%). Events in the Middle East could lift inflation through energy costs and the impact from supply chains while weighing on growth. Nonetheless, a brief shock may be looked through, but any prolonged disruption would likely delay the timing of Fed rate cuts. Officials say inflation remains too high, with upside risks if oil shocks spill into core prices and expectations, although expectations are still seen as well anchored. Most view the Middle East war as a temporary, one-off price impact and believe the Fed is well placed to wait and see. Across most of the Committee, the inflation side of the mandate remains the main concern, with Powell saying in his post-FOMC press conference that if inflation progress does not resume, cuts will not follow. More recently, 2027 voter Goolsbee and 2026 voter Hammack said in a radio interview that they see inflation as a bigger problem than employment. Given the uncertainty from the Iran war, money market pricing has turned more hawkish, with just 5bps of cuts priced in for this year.
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