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EUROPEAN OPEN: BAYN GY Roundup settlement faces lawyer opposition; UBER weighs higher DHER GY bid; ORSTED DC explores USD 1bln renewables portfolio sale; BNP FP seeks reversal of Sudan verdict; DHL GY, FDX, UPS seek EU duty delay

Newsquawk Staff ·

EUROPEAN OPEN

  • European equities started the week firmer, supported by improved risk appetite on hopes of progress towards a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. APAC stocks advanced overnight as geopolitical optimism helped lift equities and bonds.
  • US-Iran headlines remained fluid; President Trump said on Saturday that a deal was largely negotiated and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, before saying on Sunday that negotiators had been told not to rush and that the blockade would remain until an agreement is signed. US officials said Trump was on Friday seriously considering new strikes absent a last-minute breakthrough, while Secretary of State Rubio said a deal remained possible on Monday but other options would be pursued if diplomacy failed. Reports suggested that 95% of a 60-day ceasefire extension has been agreed, though drafting is still required and Iran leader Khamenei’s approval could take 5-6 days. Trump said the naval blockade would only be lifted after Iran opens the Strait, and that no funds would be released until enriched uranium is handed over.
  • Oil fell as prospects for a deal reduced supply-disruption concerns, with Brent around USD 95/bbl. Gold rose on the geopolitical developments, starting the European session around USD 4,550/oz; WSJ cited analysts who said central bank purchases are likely to support longer-term bullion demand.
  • ECB commentary leaned hawkish over the weekend: Kocher, Stournaras and Muller all indicated support for a June rate hike absent a sustainable US-Iran peace deal. Kocher said inflation will likely exceed prior forecasts while the economy remains reasonably resilient. Stournaras said the ECB’s March projection for 2.6% consumer-price growth may be revised higher, though energy prices could fall quickly if peace is agreed. Lagarde also echoed inflation concerns but did not comment on whether this puts the ECB on course for a June 2026 hike.
  • In trade news, USTR Greer said the Trump administration is still considering tariffs on imported semiconductors to support US chip manufacturing, though there are no immediate plans for levies “tomorrow or next week”. Elsewhere, The Guardian reported Brussels rejected a UK proposal for a single market for goods with the EU, instead suggesting a customs union or EEA membership; UK officials said the proposal remains under discussion ahead of a planned July EU-UK summit.
  • NOTE: liquidity conditions are expected to be thin on Monday, due to holiday closures in the US, UK, and parts of Europe.

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • HEALTHCARE: Bayer’s (BAYN GY) USD 7.25bln proposal to settle thousands of US Roundup cancer lawsuits in Missouri faces opposition from lawyers seeking review by US District Judge Vince Chhabria in California, Bloomberg reports; Bayer and supporting plaintiffs’ lawyers oppose moving the case, while final approval in St. Louis is scheduled for 9th July.
  • CONSUMER: Uber’s (UBER) board met to discuss raising its takeover bid for Delivery Hero (DHER GY) after a EUR 38/shr approach to a major shareholder was rebuffed, following an earlier EUR 33/shr offer to the board. Rival DoorDash (DASH) has also approached shareholders, but purchased no shares. Several Delivery Hero shareholders are seeking above EUR 40 per share, implying a valuation of around EUR 13bln, FT said.
  • INDUSTRIALS: DHL (DHL GY), FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS) urged EU FinMins to phase in new duty rules on low-value packages, warning of supply chain bottlenecks and potential disruption to medical supply availability, Reuters reports; the three companies called for the EUR 3.00 flat-rate duty to proceed from 1st July, but asked for more complex elements to be deferred, citing implementation complexity that cannot realistically be met by the deadline.
  • ENERGY: France has proposed that incoming EU climate transition fund rules permit investment in oil and gas companies with a clear path to sustainability, without requiring Scope 3 emissions data; the proposal pushes back against a European Commission plan to ban climate transition and sustainable funds from holding companies expanding fossil fuel production.
  • MATERIALS: Cautious mention for German chemical names in Bloomberg, which notes that Germany’s EUR 635bln chemicals sector faces a potentially disorderly contraction as high energy costs, Asian competition and weak demand pressure cash flows; from 2022-2025, 9% of Europe’s chemicals capacity was earmarked for closure, with a quarter of shutdowns in Germany; Evonik’s (EVK GY) CEO has recently warned Europe could lose half its 38 steam crackers within a decade.
  • UTILITIES: Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC) is exploring a sale of its US onshore renewables portfolio, which could fetch more than USD 1bln.
  • TECH: The Trump administration is still considering tariffs on imported semiconductors to support US chip manufacturing. USTR Greer said there were no immediate plans for new levies “tomorrow or next week”, and that discussions continue with industry over timing and scope. Italy’s CDP has approved a plan to raise its stake in Nexi (NEXI IM) to up to 29.9%, Bloomberg reports.
  • FINANCIALS: The ECB is convening banks on Tuesday to urge faster IT security efforts following risks exposed by Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview. BNP Paribas (BNP FP) asked a US federal appeals court to overturn a USD 21mln verdict against it, stemming from allegations it helped finance Sudan’s dictatorship from 1997-2011 in breach of US sanctions; the October jury verdict, which sent BNP Paribas shares lower, was a bellwether trial for claims from approximately 23,000 Sudanese refugees. The bank argues the trial judge misapplied Swiss law and that liability for the Sudanese government’s actions cannot be attributed to the bank.

DAY AHEAD

  • EVENTS: It is US Memorial Day; NYSE, NASDAQ, SIFMA fixed income and CME Globex (equities, rates, FX, energy, metals; early halt 17:00 GMT) all closed or curtailed. UK Spring Bank Holiday means the LSE and UK fixed income are closed. In the EU, it is Whit Monday, with the Swiss SIX, Oslo, Copenhagen and Vienna exchanges closed.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Israel interest is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.75%, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • WEEK AHEAD: This week’s highlights includes US PCE, Australian CPI, Tokyo CPI, ECB Minutes and rate decisions from RBNZ, SARB, BoK.
  • Newsquawk’s week ahead preview can be accessed here.
  • EARNINGS: Notable US corporates reporting this week includes: Costco (COST), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Dell Technologies (DELL), Salesforce (CRM), PDD Holdings (PDD), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), AutoZone (AZO), Autodesk (ADSK), Agilent (A), NetApp (NTAP), Zscaler (ZS), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Best Buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), Hormel (HRL), XPeng (XPEV), Gap (GAP), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl’s (KSS).
  • Newsquawk’s Weekly US Earnings Estimates can be accessed here.

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