EUROPEAN OPEN: BAYN GY seeks SCOTUS help to reduce Roundup litigation; ITRK LN rejects EQT SS GBP 9.7bln offer; EOAN GY poised to buy Ovo; Germany seeks CBK GY defence as UCG IM lurks; ADS GY gets PR 'boost' as runners break two-hour marathon

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities started the week mixed, while EM equities rose to a record high, as traders balanced AI-led optimism against signs of a potential diplomatic opening in the Middle East. Iran reportedly gave the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while postponing nuclear negotiations, Axios reported, with the plan relayed via Pakistani mediators after Foreign Minister Araghchi’s meetings in Islamabad over the weekend. Brent pared gains after the report, though crude remained elevated in Asia as supply risks persisted; Iran’s IRGC boarded two containerships near the Strait, while the US stopped an Iranian-flagged oil tanker as Washington maintained its blockade of Iranian ports on the waterway. Brent starts the European session above USD 101/bbl. Goldman Sachs raised its oil forecasts; the bank now sees Brent averaging USD 90/bbl in Q4 (from USD 80/bbl previously), citing extreme inventory draws from the prolonged Strait closure, and also lifted current-quarter and Q3 forecasts for both Brent and WTI. Gold was little changed after briefly rising to around USD 4,730/oz on the Axios report before paring gains, as investors weighed the proposed reopening of the Strait against stalled US-Iran peace efforts and restricted energy flows. In base metals, nickel climbed to its highest intraday level in nearly two years as Indonesian mining quota cuts and a global sulphur shortage tightened the supply outlook; LME nickel is up around 10% since the Iran war began, with rising sulphur prices fuelling concerns over mining disruptions in Indonesia and Africa. On the ratings front, S&P affirmed Germany’s sovereign rating at AAA, outlook stable; the CRA said the stable outlook reflects strong external position, diversified wealthy economy. Elsewhere, UK Chancellor Reeves will deliver speeches in the coming weeks setting out a responsible plan to support households and businesses through the Iran war fallout; she will also set out measures in June to boost growth. Ahead, traders are watching a packed week of central bank rate decisions, with the Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE and BoC are due to set rates, in a week when every G7 central bank is meeting. Additionally, earnings will be in focus as Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) are due to report earnings on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday; the five companies have a combined market cap of nearly USD 16tln, representing about a quarter of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation, with the results set to test whether the recent Big Tech-led rally is sustainable.
• DATA: Overnight, data showed China’s industrial profits rising to 15.5% Y/Y in March (prev. 15.2%), with large firms seeing the fastest annualised growth since September 2025; Q1 profits were up 15.5% Y/Y. Non-ferrous metals profits more than doubled in Q1, helped by aluminium and copper prices; analysts flagged that the full effect of the Iran war is unlikely to have been reflected in the data just yet. Germany’s GfK consumer confidence fell to -33.3 in May (exp. -29.5, prev. -28.0); GfK said income expectations are collapsing as a result of rising inflation, and against this backdrop, people also consider the current time to be less favourable for major purchases.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, ASM International (ASM NA) announced the resignation of Supervisory Board member Mr Van den Brink. Of note for UK tech names, ministers are reportedly resisting alignment with EU AI rules, with officials concerned about potential damage to the country’s technology sector and its alliance with the US. In financials, Oracle’s (ORCL) USD 16bln financing for a Michigan data centre closed after months of negotiations with investors; Bank of America (BAC) sold USD 14bln of project-linked bonds, anchored by Pimco (ALV GY), which bought USD 10bln, while other investors bought the remaining debt. Elsewhere, Allianz Global Investors secured USD 270mln in commitments for the first close of a private credit fund targeting infrastructure investment in Asia Pacific. German officials reportedly approached banks about whether a new investor could take a Commerzbank (CBK GY) stake to help defend against UniCredit’s (UCG IM) bid. UniCredit reportedly boosted its Generali (G IM) stake to support and strengthen its position in any potential deals pursued by others. HSBC (HSBA LN) is reportedly reviewing Hong Kong banker school-fee perks, with options including removal for new hires or compensation adjustments; no final decision has been made. The UK government will introduce a major financial services reform bill in the King’s Speech on in May; the legislation will overhaul City of London regulation, including merging the payments watchdog into the FCA, reforming the financial ombudsman and easing senior staff rules, with the certification regime expected to be scrapped, FT reports. In consumer sectors, Adidas (ADS GY) gained a marketing boost after Kenya’s Sabastian Sawe and Ethiopia’s Yomif Kejelcha wore its new USD 500 ultra-light racing shoe while both broke the two-hour barrier at the 2026 London Marathon. In industrials, Intertek (ITRK LN) rejected an improved GBP 9.7bln takeover offer from EQT (EQT SS) at GBP 54.00/shr, stating that the offer fundamentally undervalues the company. Australia announced that it is to spend AUD 1.2bln to buy around 300 armoured Bushmaster vehicles, made by Thales (HO FP), and upgrade current armoured trucks for the Army. Safran (SAF FP) announced a EUR 375mln share buyback. Nordex (NDX1 GY) reported Q1 EBITDA of EUR 131mln (exp. 112mln), sales EUR 1.59bln (exp. 1.53bln), while Q1 order intake was 1.87 GW; CEO said it is on track to meet its FY26 guidance. Of note for airlines, WSJ reported that a group of US budget airlines including Frontier (ULCC) and Avelo are seeking USD 2.5bln in US government assistance in exchange for warrants convertible into equity stakes; the group calculated the figure from estimated extra 2026 jet-fuel costs, assuming prices stay above USD 4/gallon on average for the rest of the year; Southwest (LUV) said it was not part of the group of carriers seeking government aid. In energy, Galp Energia (GALP PL) reported a Q1 EBITDA beat, and net income rose Y/Y. In healthcare, Bayer (BAYN GY) is seeking US Supreme Court help to reduce Roundup litigation that has cost the company more than USD 10bln; lawyers will urge justices to overturn a USD 1.25mln Missouri verdict for a man claiming Roundup caused non-Hodgkin lymphoma, arguing federal law bars such suits because regulators did not require a cancer warning. AstraZeneca’s (AZN LN) Saphnelo was approved in the US for subcutaneous self-administration as a new autoinjector for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus. Novartis’ (NOVN SW) Rhapsido received European Commission approval as first oral targeted treatment for chronic spontaneous urticaria. GSK’s (GSK LN) TESARO said the Delaware Chancery Court dismissed AnaptysBio’s anticipatory breach motion, without affecting the main contractual dispute or TESARO’s declaratory judgment claim. In utilities, Ovo, one of the UK’s biggest energy suppliers, is poised for sale to German energy group E.ON (EOAN GY) after years of financial pressures, Sky News reports. In notable broker updates, Aker Solutions (AKSO NO) downgraded at Nordea; Kemira (KEMIRA FH) downgraded at Danske Bank; J Sainsbury (SBRY LN) downgraded at Citi; Orsted (ORSTED DC) upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Kingfisher (KGF LN) upgraded at Barclays; Commerzbank (CBK GY) upgraded at Bank of America.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: From the UK, CBI distributive trades survey is due (prev. -52). In North America, Dallas Fed manufacturing index is expected to fall (exp. -0.8, prev. -0.2).
• EVENTS: US President Trump will discuss Iran with his national security and foreign policy team on Monday. Separately, Trump is to meet with UK King Charles at 16:15EDT/21:15BST. There will be an in-town pool call at 09:00EDT/14:00BST.
• SUPPLY: The US sells USD 69bln of 2yr notes, and USD 70bln of 5yr notes; the Eurozone will sell EUR 7bln across 2031, 2036 and 2044 lines via syndication; UK BoE will conduct a GBP 675mln long-maturity gilt sale.
• ENERGY/METALS: Brent June 2026 options expire; copper, silver and gold May 2026 options also expire.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s Day Ahead calendar
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: Verizon Communications (VZ), Cadence Design (CDNS), Public Storage (PSA), Nucor (NUE), Ventas (VTR), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), AvalonBay (AVB), Brown & Brown (BRO), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Universal Health (UHS), Alexandria Real Estate (ARE).
• Newsquawk’s daily US earnings estimates are here
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include policy announcements from the Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, BoC; US will publish PCE inflation data, Q1 GDP, and ISM manufacturing. This week, we will also get a plethora of earnings, with five of the Mag-7 due to report.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview
• Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates