EUROPEAN OPEN: BMW GY Q4 sales miss, sees stable China; ZAL GY EBIT beats, announces EUR 300mln buyback; LDO IM FY revenue beats, raises dividend, guides higher; ALV GY eyes HSBA LN Singapore unit; TTE FP caps French petrol and diesel prices

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened Thursday trade on the back foot. Global stocks were hit and oil rose after attacks on tankers in Iraqi waters heightened concern over Middle East energy infrastructure. Brent prices rose above USD 100/bbl after Iraq halted oil port operations and Oman evacuated vessels from a key export terminal. Tankers were hit off Dubai and Iraq, and Bahrain reported a strike on its fuel tanks, while Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Kuwait reported drone attacks. Bitcoin fell sub USD 70k amid the risk-off. Gold retreated for a second day, with bullion trading around USD 5,150/oz, following US CPI data which reduced expectations for any near term Fed rate cuts, and as the Middle East conflict lifted crude prices. The latest attacks have offset any optimism around the IEA’s coordinated release of crude stockpiles. Analysts at ING said that despite the announcements of reserve releases, there are no signs of de-escalation, with continued disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz; it noted that the US will begin releasing 172mln bbls from the strategic petroleum reserve next week over about 120 days, equivalent to around 1.4mln BPD, and assuming a similar rate from others, the coordinated release would total about 3.3mln BPD (vs around 20mln BPD that travelled through the Strait before the Iran conflict started). Other analysts note that the duration of the conflict and the security of cargoes going through the Strait are the crucial factors for crude prices ahead. WSJ said that the escalating attacks and the US decision not to provide military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait have raised the prospect of a prolonged closure of the waterway. US Energy Secretary Wright said he hopes to see ships through the Strait of Hormuz in a few weeks. Meanwhile, European natgas prices are up again today, rising almost 8% in sympathy with crude prices. The EU’s Dombrovskis warned that inflation could exceed 3% this year if the Middle East war keeps Brent around USD 100/bbl and gas prices elevated for a prolonged period; under that scenario, 2026 growth would be up to 0.4ppts below the 1.4% pace forecast late last year. As the European day gets underway, Bund yields are now within sight of 3%, at the highest levels since October 2023 amid inflation fears; traders have also increased bets on ECB hikes, with swap markets implying a 45% chance of a 25bps rate rise by April. On the trade front, USTR Greer said the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan, and that it could lead to responsive actions including tariffs; he said the US has consulted trading partners, and added that the EU has done nothing of what was agreed in the bilateral trade deal. In data, RICS reported its UK house price gauge worsened to -12 in February (exp. -9, prev. -10); UK estate agents were more pessimistic about the housing market as war in the Middle East weakened hopes of lower borrowing costs; the index of expected sales over the next three months turned negative, reaching the lowest level since November, while the outlook for prices also deteriorated.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In autos, BMW (BMW GY) reported Q4 EBIT above expectations, but sales fell short in the quarter; it expects an automaking margin of between 4-6% this year (vs 5.3% last year), with profitability seen broadly flat due to tariff costs and intensifying competition in China; it said sales in China will remain broadly stable. In industrials, Daimler Truck (DTG GY) reported an FY EPS miss, though adj. EBIT was slightly above expectations; it sees 2026 industrial business adj. return on sales between 6-8% (vs 7.9% in 2025), and said H2 should be stronger than H1; it sees unit sales of 330-360k (vs 315k in 2025), and targets at least EUR 250mln of additional recurring net savings this year. Leonardo (LDO IM) reported FY25 revenue of EUR 19.5bln (exp. 19.4bln), adj. Net Income of EUR 1bln (prev. 0.74bln Y/Y); raised its quarterly dividend +21% to EUR 0.63/shr; sees FY26 Revenue at EUR 21bln, EBITA at EUR 2.03bln, with orders of around EUR 25bln. In utilities, RWE (RWE GY) FY EBITDA topped expectations but adj. net income fell short; it will invest EUR 17bln in the US through 2031, about half of its planned global investment of EUR 35bln, and will add gas-fired power capacity in the US, where it has previously focused on renewables. In consumer sectors, Zalando (ZAL GY) FY sales were in line, and EBIT topped expectations; it sees FY26 adj. EBIT between EUR 660mln-EUR 740mln (vs 591mln in FY25), driven by improvements in its stand-alone business; sees gross merchandise volume growth of +12-17% in FY26 (vs EUR 17.56bln Y/Y), and plans to repurchase up to 20mln shares for up to EUR 300mln. In tech, Siltronic (WAF GY) confirmed FY25 sales -4.7% Y/Y at EUR 1.3467bln, and EBITDA of EUR 316.9mln (vs 363.8mln in FY24) with a 23.5% margin (vs 25.8% in FY24); expects FY26 sales to fall by a mid-single-digits, with EBITDA margin of 20-24% and capex of between EUR 180-220mln; exec said structural trends in the semiconductor industry remain unchanged, with ‘megatrends’ driving a significant capacity expansion across the entire industry. In materials, Holcim (HOLN SW) has agreed to acquire Cemex’s building materials and solutions operations in Colombia for USD 485mln, expanding in Latin America. The deal is EPS accretive in year one, and ROIC accretive in year three. K+S (SDF GY) FY sales were flat Y/Y, while EBITDA rose; it cut its FY25 dividend to EUR 0.07/shr (prev. 0.15); it expects FY26 EBITDA of EUR 600-700mln (vs 613mln in FY25), though its outlook is dependent on sales volumes and potash prices in Brazil; sees global potash demand rising this year, which has already resulted in slightly higher prices in Brazil. In financials, Generali (G IM) reported FY25 net profit +12% Y/Y at EUR 4.17bln (exp. 4.22bln), driven by the performance of all its units. It will launch a EUR 500mln share buyback this year, and confirmed its guidance. Bloomberg said Allianz (ALV GY) and Sun Life are mulling bids for HSBC Life Singapore (HSBA LN) after HSBC began a strategic review; Dai-ichi Life (DLICY) and Nippon Life (NIPF) may also bid; the sale process began this month, and non-binding bids could emerge in the coming weeks. In energy, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) will cap French petrol prices at EUR 1.99/litre and diesel at EUR 2.09/litre, from 13th March to the end of the month, citing exceptional market volatility; it will reassess the global oil market situation in early April. In notable broker updates, Aker BP (AKRBP NO) was downgraded at SEB; Neste (NESTE FH) was upgraded at RBC; Sandvik (SAND SS) was downgraded at Morgan Stanley; Rentokil (RTO LN) was upgraded at UBS.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Weekly US initial jobless claims are expected to be little changed at 213k (from 215k prior), and continuing claims are seen at 1.85mln (from 1.868mln). The US will release January trade data, where the trade deficit is expected to narrow to USD 66.6bln (from USD 70.3bln). Canada’s trade data is also due, where the deficit is expected to narrow to CAD 0.9bln (from CAD 1.3bln). US housing starts are expected to ease to 1.35mln in January (from 1.404mln). The Census Bureau will publish the Quarterly Services Survey. After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q1 GDP tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 2.1%. In speakers, Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; text and Q&A expected) will discuss bank capital rules, but will not touch on monpol or the economic outlook ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. BoE Governor Bailey will speak at the Financial Stability Board payments summit. The CBRT is expected to keep rates unchanged at 37% today. In supply, the UK will sell GBP 500mln of 2049 linkers; the UST will auction USD 22bln of 30yr bonds. Notable corporates reporting results today include: Adobe (ADBE), Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Lennar (LEN), Dick’s (DKS).