EUROPEAN OPEN: CBK GY raises profit guidance amid takeover defence; EVK GY confirms outlook despite sales miss; IAG profit beats but cuts capacity guidance; ITRK LN rejects EQT's GBP 8.9bln takeover offer

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened lower, following downside in APAC and a pullback on Wall Street, as escalating US-Iran tensions renewed energy supply and inflation concerns. The US struck Iranian military targets after Iran fired on three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said the assault involved missiles, drones and small boats, though no US assets were struck. The skirmish threatens a fragile ceasefire as both sides continue talks on ending the war. Oil rose as the renewed clashes clouded prospects for a deal, with Brent briefly moving towards USD 103/bbl before paring gains, to start the European day a little above USD 100/bbl. Gold gained on renewed buying interest after the PBoC’s purchases, with China raising gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, adding 260k ounces; bullion trades around USD 4,725/oz as Europe begins. In UK politics, Reform UK made significant early council election gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives; the polls are seen as a key test for PM Starmer; initial counts suggested Reform had gained more than 300 seats, while Labour lost 220 and the Conservatives lost 108, with most results due later today. Separately, The Times reported Energy Secretary Miliband privately urged Starmer to consider setting out a resignation timeline around two weeks ago, as Labour rivals including Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting prepared potential leadership bids if local results were particularly damaging. In trade, President Trump said the EU had promised to deliver its side of the deal and cut tariffs to zero, adding the bloc has until July 4th or tariffs would immediately rise to higher levels. Separately, Trump’s 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful by a divided three-judge panel at the US Court of International Trade, which granted a request by small businesses and two dozen mostly Democrat-led states to invalidate the duties imposed in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act. Ahead, there will be focus on the US jobs data for April (preview below), and a decent amount of central bank speak; traders will also be eying Iran’s response to the US regarding its 14-point proposal.
• DATA: German industrial production retreated in March as the Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher, falling by -0.7% M/M (exp. 0.4%); analysts say the decline is a setback for the expected 2026 manufacturing recovery, with Germany’s industrial sector already pressured by pandemic-era supply issues, the shift from cheap Russian gas, Chinese competition and green-energy transition costs. The German trade surplus narrowed to EUR 14.3bln (exp. 18.9bln, prev. 19.8bln), with imports rising by 5.1% M/M (prev. 4.7%), and exports rising just 0.5% M/M (prev. 3.6%). In the UK, Halifax reported house price growth pared to 0.4% Y/Y (prev. 0.8%); the building society said higher energy prices lifted inflation expectations and borrowing costs, adding caution among households, adding that the market still remains relatively stable, supported by wage growth and fixed-rate mortgages.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: TSMC (TSM) reported April revenue down by -1.1% M/M, though +17.5% Y/Y, at TWD 410.7bln (prev. +45.2% Y/Y); YTD Revenue +29.9% Y/Y at TWD 1.54tln (prev. +35%). CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell 10% in extended US trading after a Q1 profit miss, Q2 revenue guidance which missed expectations, and it raised capex forecasts, with widening losses and heavy debt-funded data centre investment weighing despite its strong revenue growth.
• FINANCIALS: Commerzbank (CBK GY) plans to cut 3,000 jobs and take about EUR 450mln in restructuring charges as it raises targets to fend off UniCredit’s (UCG IM) takeover attempt; Q1 net profit rose 9.4% to EUR 913mln (exp. 868mln); FY profit guidance was raised to at least EUR 3.4bln (vs ‘more than EUR 3.2bln’). IREN (IREN) shares surged by almost 10% in extended US trading after news that Nvidia (NVDA) will invest up to USD 2.1bln as part of a deal to deploy up to 5 gigawatts of AI infrastructure; IREN also issued Nvidia a 5yr right to buy up to 30mln shares at USD 70.00 each.
• ENERGY: BP (BP/ LN) CEO reportedly told staff a reorganisation into upstream and downstream units will start in June, Reuters reports citing sources; gas and carbon capture will move into upstream, while low carbon and biofuels will shift to downstream; she added that changing BP’s listing to the US was not a priority. Shell (SHEL LN) CEO said there is a possibility that we see continued bullishness on overall energy prices for next 6-12 months.
• UTILITIES: Enel (ENEL IM) reported Q1 EBITDA of EUR 6bln (vs prev. 5.8bln), and revenue of EUR 20.588bln (vs 22.1bln Y/Y); confirmed FY targets, said it was preparing counter-arguments against possible revocation of its Sao Paulo power distribution concession, whose financial assets have a book value of more than EUR 3bln.
• INDUSTRIALS: Intertek (ITRK LN) rejected EQT’s latest GBP 58/shr takeover offer, worth about GBP 8.9bln ex-debt; it said the offer significantly undervalued its future prospects and carried execution risk. Airbus (AIR FP) delivered 67 jet deliveries in April, and booked 28 gross orders, taking YTD total deliveries to 181 (vs 192 Y/Y). Maersk (MAERSKB DC) CEO told CNN that increased costs from disruption to global shipping would need to be passed on to customers; it expects expenses to rise by USD 500mln/month from April. Ferrovial (FER SM) reported higher Q1 2026 revenue (EUR 2.1bln vs exp. 2.1bln), driven by growth in construction, transportation and mobility; construction rose on new projects and ongoing work in North America and Europe, while transportation benefited from higher traffic volumes on managed lanes and toll roads; CEO said it started 2026 with strong momentum. IAG (IAG LN) reported Q1 adj. operating profit of EUR 351mln (exp. 284mln), revenue EUR 7.18bln (exp. 7.16bln), load factor of 84.2% (exp. 83.1%); it cut FY26 capacity guidance to below 3% growth, and warned higher fuel prices would lower profits vs earlier expectations.
• MATERIALS: Freeport McMoRan (FCX) Indonesia delayed the full restart of its Grasberg copper mine by a year; the Central Papua complex is now targeting a return to full production by early 2028. Evonik (EVK GY) Q1 2026 sales EUR 3.43bln (exp. 3.6bln), adj. EBITDA EUR 475mln (exp. 464.1mln); confirmed FY26 outlook despite significant uncertainty, and said Middle East supply disruption had lifted demand for certain chemicals via customer stockpiling.
• HEALTHCARE: Gilead (GILD) fell 1% in extended US trading after it issued mixed guidance, despite beating Q1 sales expectations, with strength in HIV drugs failing to offset the weaker earnings outlook and USD 11.5bln charge to be taken in Q2 for acquisitions.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: Reports suggest Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal, and is expected to formally respond today.
• DATA: US April jobs data is the highlight, with headline nonfarm payrolls expected to slow to 60K (prev. 178K), and unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.3% (see below for preview link). Prelim University of Michigan sentiment indicators are expected to show headline sentiment at 49.5 (prev. 49.8). Canada will also release jobs numbers (exp. 20K, prev. 14.1K) with unemployment seen unchanged at 6.7%.
• SPEAKERS: Fed’s Bowman (voter, dovish), Daly (2027 voter, dove), Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) and Waller (voter, dove) will participate on a panel; Fed’s Cook (voter, neutral; text expected) will speak on tokenisation and the financial system; Fed’s Miran (voter, dove; will leave if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair) will give an interview to Fox Business; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) will also give an interviews to CNBC and then to Bloomberg. ECB President Lagarde (neutral; text expected) will deliver opening remarks; ECB’s de Guindos (dovish; no text expected) will participate in a fireside chat; ECB’s Cipollone (no text expected) will speak on sustainable development; ECB’s Schnabel (hawk; no text expected) is also due today. BoE Governor Bailey (neutral) will speak on global imbalances; BoE’s Breeden (neutral) will give remarks on geopolitics, banking and global credit.
• EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings due today include: PPL (PPL), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS).
• PREVIEW - US JOBS DATA (13:30BST/08:30BST): The April US jobs report is expected to show a clear moderation after Marchʼs 178k gains, with headline NFP seen at 65k (the Bloomberg ‘whisper’ number is 70k), and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, lifting the Y/Y rate to 3.8% (from 3.5%). Traders will be looking to see if the March strength was flattered by temporary factors, including returning healthcare strikers and weather-related payback, or whether the labour market remains resilient enough to keep the Fed comfortable staying on hold. Analysts say that a soft headline print could therefore be dismissed as noisy, given Marchʼs distortions; a number above consensus, however, could ease stagflation concerns, and add to the hawkish narrative, reinforcing the case for an extended pause. Click here for Newsquawk’s full US jobs data preview