EUROPEAN OPEN: HMB SS Q4 operating profit beats, sees sales up; HLAG GY warns 2026 earnings to fall sharply; HEN3 GY in advanced talks to buy OLPX; BMPS IM removes Lovaglio as CEO; STMPA FP upgraded, EVO SS downgraded

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened lower following a cautious APAC session, as markets remained wary amid a still-fluid geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East. Overnight, stocks traded cautiously as mixed messaging from the US and Iran kept uncertainty elevated, while strikes reportedly continued against Iran and its regional neighbours. On the geopolitical front, US President Trump reportedly told aides that he wants a speedy end to the war, and believes the conflict is in its final stages. Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by next Saturday, even without a final agreement, while N12 News separately said the working assumption in Israel is that he could announce a ceasefire as soon as this coming Saturday. In commodities, crude futures rose, with Brent climbing above USD 104/bbl overnight after falling more than 2% on Wednesday, though it has since slipped back to just under USD 100/bbl as the European day gets underway; Citi said volatility is likely to persist given conflicting war-related headlines, and expects disruption to the Strait of Hormuz to continue for 4-6 weeks before dealmaking begins. Gold is lower after a two-day recovery, with bullion around USD 4,450/oz, giving back most of the prior session gains, amid the conflicting US and Iranian statements. Base metals are also softer, with copper under pressure as investors weigh the inflationary implications of the conflict alongside the risk of weaker global activity and softer demand. In central bank speak, the ECB is reportedly hoping to look through any energy price shock stemming from the Iran war, and President Lagarde said it is too early to know the impact, with rates seen staying steady if the shock proves temporary, though two hikes are possible if it is more persistent; ECB’s Nagel added the central bank will have enough data by April to judge whether action is needed or whether a wait-and-see approach is warranted. Elsewhere, UK consumer confidence fell to its lowest level under PM Starmer’s Labour government, as concerns over rising inflation intensified; the BRC said its measure of expectations for the economy over the next three months dropped to -53 in March from -30, the weakest reading since the series began in March 2024. In Germany, GfK consumer confidence slipped to -28.0 in April (exp. -26.5, prev. -24.7).
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In consumer sectors, H&M (HMB SS) reported a bigger-than-expected rise in operating profit in Q4, and said it expects March sales to increase 1% in local currencies. Henkel (HEN3 GY) is in advanced talks to buy Olaplex (OLPX), according to Bloomberg; sides are discussing a price of about USD 2/shr. A deal could be announced in coming days. In materials, BASF (BAS GY) is opening its EUR 10bln Guangdong petrochemicals site, ramping up production amid Middle East disruptions and pressure on an oversupplied petrochemicals market. Rio Tinto (RIO LN) said its diamond mine Diavik in Canada mine reached final production, mining 150mln carats over 23 years, ending its diamonds business; it also reported that it paid USD 9.9bln taxes and royalties globally in 2025 (vs 8.4bln in 2024). Talks between Thyssenkrupp (TKA GY) and Jindal Steel International could collapse over pension liabilities and investment differences, though discussions continue, Reuters reports. In industrials, Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) warned 2026 earnings will fall sharply amid Iran war disruption; it said the outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty due to the highly volatile development of freight rates. In communications, Ericsson (ERICB SS) signed a multi-year framework agreement with SoftBank (SFTBY) to deploy next-generation core network solutions in Japan and accelerate 5G Standalone adoption. ProSiebenSat.1 (PSM GY) reported FY25 adj. EBITDA -28% Y/Y, missing guidance, with advertising revenue falling about 8% amid a weak German ad market. In financials, Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) removed Luigi Lovaglio as CEO after he joined a rival slate to stay on, with the board revoking his powers, taking over his duties and suspending him as general manager. Jefferies (JEF) Q1 profit rose but still missed estimates, hit by USD 17mln losses on Market Financial Solutions and First Brands; investment banking revenue rose by +45% Y/Y. In healthcare, Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Chairman will today face investors at its AGM, amid recent criticism over limited progress, including a failed obesity startup attempt from Pfizer (PFE) and a gloomy forecast that hit shares. In tech, STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) registered up to 24.76mln ordinary shares for resale by a selling securityholder, which may be acquired through warrant exercise; it will receive no proceeds from the sales. In notable broker updates, HSBC (HSBA LN) was reinstated with a Buy at Goldman Sachs; STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley; ING Group (INGA NA) and Commerzbank (CBK GY) were upgraded at Keefe Bruyette; Evolution (EVO SS) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Nokia (NOKIA FH) was downgraded at SEB. Going ex-dividend today: British American Tobacco (BATS LN), Mondi (MNDI LN), Segro (SGRO LN), Lion Finance (BGEO LN), St James’s Place (STJ LN), Smith & Nephew (SN/ LN), Aviva (AV/ LN), Prudential (PRU LN).

TODAY’S AGENDA:

DAY AHEAD: In Europe, the Norges Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.0%. The Bundesbank will publish its monthly report. Stateside, weekly initial jobless claims data for the 21st March week are expected to print 210k (from 205k), while continuing claims for the 14th March week (which coincides with the BLS survey window for the March jobs data) is seen at 1.86mln (from 1.857mln). In energy, the EIA will release weekly natgas storage data. On the speakers’ docket, Fed’s Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) to speak on the Fed’s Balance Sheet; Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter, dovish) will speak on the outlook; Fed’s Barr (voter, neutral) will speak on the economy; Fed’s Cook (voter, neutral) to give a speech on ‘Reflections on Financial Stability’; BoE’s Taylor (Dove) will speak at a macro conference; BoE’s Breeden (Neutral) to participate on a panel at Resolution Foundation; BoE’s Greene (Hawkish) will participate in a fireside chat; ECB’s de Guindos (Dovish) to give remarks at a lecture; Riksbank’s Seim to speak on the recent policy decision, and driving forces behind the SEK; BoC’s Rogers to speak is scheduled to give remarks. In supply, the US will auction USD 44bln of 7yr notes.