EUROPEAN OPEN: KNEBV FH in talks to buy TK Elevator, valued at EUR 25bln; FRA GY core profit rises; STMPA FP integrates robotics tech into NVDA platforms; EU airlines seek delay to synthetic fuel mandate; ALC SW terminates LNSR merger agreement

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have opened lower, following a mixed APAC trading session, and after US stocks rose on Monday amid a decline in oil prices, its first decline in almost a week. However, crude prices rose overnight as Iran intensified attacks on energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf; Brent advanced toward USD 105/bbl. Operations have been suspended at the Shah Field in the UAE, and an Iraqi oil field, while the key Emirati port Fujairah was also targeted (loadings at Fujairah have now been suspended). President Trump said the war would be wrapped up soon, but not this week; Iranian officials denied reports that they had direct contact with the US in recent days. Aluminium rebounded after a two-day slide as uncertainty over the Iran war increased concerns about further output cuts at major Middle East plants. The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted metal shipments and raw material imports, with several firms already reducing output and analysts warning the risk of more halts will rise if the war continues. Gold was in a narrow range overnight as traders weighed inflation risks against efforts to contain an oil-supply shock from the Middle East war; bullion remained above USD 5,000/oz. Analysts say that higher oil prices are fuelling global inflation concerns, which could lead central banks to adopt a more cautious policy stance regarding cuts. Attention is also shifting towards this week’s central bank decisions, after the RBA raised rates overnight, in a split 5-4 decision; traders framed the announcement as a dovish hike, accordingly, though the presser tilted hawkish. The Fed is on Wednesday expected to keep rates steady, as it contends with inflation which was well-above target even before the Iran conflict got underway, with analysts talking about how the US economy now faces stagnation risks amid higher prices, softer growth, and a labour market that is showing signs of fragility. Ahead today, however, the focus will remain on geopolitics; reports suggest that US envoy Witkoff plans to brief a small bipartisan group of senators in a classified setting on Tuesday about the Iran war, as Senators seek information on Trump’s next moves, diplomacy with Iran, and options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, the US Commerce Department said the Trump administration’s AI exports programme will enter its next phase on 1st April, with industry-led groups given 90 days to submit proposals for full-stack AI export packages; selected groups may receive faster export licence reviews, access to federal credit programmes, government advocacy abroad and interagency support. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO said at the company’s annual GTC event that its flagship AI processors for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems would help generate USD 1tln in sales through 2027 (vs USD 500bln announced in October); Vera Rubin will ship later this year. He also unveiled new products, announcing that Nvidia will expand further into CPUs, introduced semiconductors using technology acquired from Groq, and said the company is developing chips for data centres in outer space. STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) said it is integrating robotics components into the Nvidia (NVDA) Holoscan Sensor Bridge reference set and adding high-fidelity component models to Nvidia Isaac Sim. In industrials, European airlines are reportedly planning to formally call for at least a delay in new EU rules set to come into force in 2030 that mandate airlines to use certain amount of synthetic green jet fuel. Kone (KNEBV FH) is in talks to buy private equity-owned elevator maker TK Elevator; TK Elevator’s owners are said to be seeking a valuation as much as EUR 25bln. Fraport (FRA GY) expects 2026 EBITDA of around EUR 1.5bln (vs EUR 1.44bln Y/Y), supported by higher passenger traffic after Frankfurt Terminal 3 opens in Aprill it sees 65-66mln passengers in Frankfurt this year (vs 63.2mln Y/Y), but expects a EUR 300-400mln short-term hit from higher interest, depreciation and amortisation. In energy, BP (BP/ LN) confirmed the production start-up from a new gas consortium project in Angola; initial production from the Quiluma field is expected to be 150mln standard cubic feet per day, and rise to 330mmscf/day by year-end. In consumer sectors, Delivery Hero (DHER GY) has reportedly reduced the size, and widened pricing of its USD 1.4bln loan offering amid market turmoil, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Travis Perkins (TPK LN) FY25 revenue GBP 4.57bln (prev. 4.61bln Y/Y), adj. operating profit GBP 133mln (prev. 152mln Y/Y); the Board recommends a FY dividend of 12p/shr (prev. 14.5p/shr); exec said the trading environment has remained subdued, reflecting a continuation of the weak UK construction activity figures. In autos, Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) has filed to recall around 48k vehicles in the US, NHTSA said. In financials, BNP Paribas Cardif (BNP FP) is said to be in advanced talks to buy Warburg Pincus’ 26% stake in IndiaFirst Life Insurance; the transaction could value IndiaFirst at about USD 350mln; a deal has not yet been finalised. Separately, BNP unveiled its 2030 Strategic Plan to position it towards it RoTE of 133% by 2028, and the plan includes a target of around EUR 350bln of cumulative net inflows with revenue CAGR of around +4%. In healthcare, Alcon (ALC SW) and Lensar (LSNR) agreed to terminate their previously announced merger agreement; Alcon said it still believes the acquisition would have enhanced FLACS innovation and competition, but that delays, added costs and the FTC’s opposition after nearly a year of regulatory review made the transaction unattractive to continue. In notable broker updates, Neste (NESTE FH) was upgraded at Barclays; Roche (ROG SW) was downgraded at BNP Paribas; Ubisoft (UBI FP) was downgraded at AlphaValue; Unite (UTG LN) was downgraded at Barclays; Senior (SNR LN) was downgraded at Peel Hunt.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Axios reports that US envoy Witkoff plans to brief a small bipartisan group of senators in a classified setting on Tuesday about the Iran war, as Senators seek information on Trump’s next moves, diplomacy with Iran, and options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In Europe, final Italian inflation stats for February are due. Germany’s ZEW survey for March is expected to see sentiment fall to 38.7 (from 58.3), while current conditions are seen at -67.1 (from -65.9). The Eurozone ZEW sentiment headline is expected to fall to 24.3 (from 39.4). Stateside, the weekly ADP jobs figures are due (last week, it printed +15.5k average/week over the four-week period). Pending home sales for February will also be released. In energy, the API will release its gauge of inventories for the week after the US close. In ags, the GDT price index data will be released (last time out, the change in GDT price index was +5.7% to USD 4,301, while WMP prices were +4.5% to USD 3,863). On the speakers’ slate, ECB’s Nagel (hawk) is due to give remarks. In supply, the US will auction USD 13bln of 20yr bonds, while the UK will sell GBP 4bln of 2031 debt. Notable corporate reports due today include: Lululemon (LULU) and DocuSign (DOCU).