EUROPEAN OPEN: NKE lower by 9% after hours, Adidas and Puma benefit from the drop in market share and broader tone; session thus far characterised by the energy pullback amid Middle East optimism, though caveats apply; Trump due at 02:00BST on April 2nd

• European equities have opened on the front foot, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.6%, Stoxx 600 +2.3%, following strong APAC trade and a positive lead from futures across the morning as energy retreats on updates that the Middle East conflict could be “coming to an end”, however, notable caveats apply at this stage, particularly with reference to Hormuz. Note, the FTSE 100 +1.8% is the relative laggard, given its energy exposure.
• Action that has pushed WTI May’26 below the USD 97.50/bbl mark, vs it being clear of the USD 100/bbl handle at the start of the European morning. Similarly, Brent Jun26 is now below USD 100/bbl. To the clear benefit of fixed income, as yields moderate markedly and central bank pricing trims the extent of implied tightening. Further, the USD is under pressure to the benefit of G10s across the board, GBP/USD currently leads and approaches the 1.33 handle.
• Overnight, Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI declined by more than expected from the prior, but remained in expansionary territory for March. A series that failed to dent the APAC strength seen given the geopolitical updates. 

STOCK SPECIFICS

• Adidas (ADS GY) and Puma (PUM GY) +3.4% and +3.6% respectively, following the after-hours report from Nike (NKE), where the name fell by 9% despite beating on top and bottom lines, but did highlight persistent weakness in China.
• Airbus (AIR FP) removed from the European Conviction List at Goldman Sachs, replaced by HSBC (HSBA LN); Airbus +4.9%, HSBC +2.8%.
• Berkeley Group (BKG GY) is -8.4% despite the name affirming its guidance for FY26, as it flags a halt to land purchases.
• Sandoz (SDZ SW) initiated with Buy at Goldman Sachs, +4.6%

DAY AHEAD

• The primary event, though technically tomorrow in the UK, is the speech by US President Trump at 02:00BST on the 2nd of April (21:00ET, on the 1st of April). Details around the speech are light, aside from it will cover the Iran conflict.
• Data includes Final Manufacturing PMIs for March, as a reminder, the Flash releases pointed to a stagflationary environment given the Middle East energy shock. US Retail Sales for February, expected +0.4% M/M (prev. -0.2%); BoFA’s Consumer Checkpoint for the period showed notably strengthening in spending growth, with annual spending accelerating 3.2%, its strongest in three years. Followed by ISM Manufacturing for March, expected to be little changed on a headline basis, while Prices Paid is seen lifting to 72.5 (prev. 70.5) and the employment gauge that was last at 48.8 will be watched ahead of Friday’s BLS report. 
• The docket also features Fed Speak from Musalem (2028, Hawk) at 14:05BST/09:05ET from whom we expect both a text and Q&A. Musalem's first appearance since the March FOMC, typically he is more concerned about the inflation side of the mandate vs the employment side. Followed by Barr (Voter, Neutral) five minutes later, who will not provide a text but does partake in a Q&A. However, the speech’s title does not lend itself to monetary policy.
• Thereafter, we look to the BoC Minutes. In March, the BoC held rates at 2.25% as expected, with the main change in the statement the removal of the line that the “current policy rate remains appropriate…”. The statement & Macklem pointed to the BoC looking through the near-term energy shock, but made clear they would act if it proved more persistent.