EUROPEAN OPEN: PSH LN submits bid for UMG NA; PUIG SM holds US talks with EL on deal; ASML NA wins about 20 EUV tool order from Samsung; Samsung prelim Q1 tops estimates; Trump deadline ahead

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are mixed, though the FTSE 100 is outperforming as higher energy prices lent support to the UK benchmark. Overnight, APAC stocks traded cautiously despite the constructive Wall Street lead, with sentiment restrained by geopolitics ahead of US President Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US attacks on power plants and bridges. Trump nevertheless said talks were progressing well and added that Iran would like to reach a deal. In commodities, oil rose for a third straight day as Trump stepped up threats against Iranian infrastructure ahead of the 20:00EDT deadline (01:00BST on Wednesday); June Brent moved above USD 111/bbl, while May WTI traded above USD 115/bbl after settling at its highest level since June 2022; Bloomberg said North American crude grades were also climbing as refiners in Asia and Europe competed for a smaller pool of accessible supply following weeks of disrupted flows through Hormuz, while US shale producers were looking to raise output in response to firmer prices. Gold initially edged higher as traders weighed the prospect of fresh US action against Iran, but later reversed course and added to the losses seen over the previous two sessions; bullion enters the European day above USD 4,640/oz. In crypto, Bitcoin briefly rose above USD 70K for the first time since March as traders unwound bearish positions despite lingering uncertainty around Middle East talks, before slipping back below that level. In central bank commentary, ECB’s Radev said policymakers must remain ready to act if inflation proves persistent, warning that inflation expectations risk rising too quickly, though he added it was still too early to judge whether an April rate hike would be warranted.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In communications, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square (PSH LN) submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire all outstanding Universal Music Group (UMG NA) shares through a business combination; UMG shareholders would receive EUR 9.4bln in cash, or EUR 5.05/shr, plus 0.77 New UMG shares per UMG share; Pershing said the package is worth a total EUR 30.40/shr, a 78% premium, and would cancel 17% of shares outstanding. In tech, LG Electronics (066570 KS) projected a Q1 earnings rebound, with operating profit likely up 33% Y/Y, driven by record Q1 revenue and improving profitability in home appliances, televisions and vehicle components. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) announced Q1 prelim operating profit and revenue above estimates, as AI-driven chip demand lifted prices. Elsewhere, Samsung has reportedly ordered about 70 lithography tools for P5 Phase 1, including around 20 EUV systems from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML (ASML NA) worth more than KRW 10tln. In consumer sectors, representatives of the Puig (PUIG SM) have travelled to the US to negotiate with Estee Lauder (EL) on a potential integration, Expansion reports; talks centre on a likely Estee Lauder takeover offer using cash and shares, with governance, shareholder agreements and the exchange ratio under review while both families retain strong voting control. H&M (HMB SS) received a cautious mention in Bloomberg, which says that H&M is struggling to sell its rebound story as CEO Daniel Erver is trying to revive the apparel group amid investor credibility concerns. In energy, ISS recommended voting against BP’s (BP/ LN) plan to scrap certain legacy climate reporting resolutions, calling the move unprecedented and insufficiently justified despite its shift towards standardised disclosures. In industrials, the Italian government will reportedly announce a new Leonardo (LDO IM) CEO this week. Stadler Rail (SRAIL SW) withdrew its appeal against the award of an SBB (SBBB SS) framework contract for up to 200 double-decker trains to Siemens (SIE GY), effective 7th April; Stadler said the procurement files provided by the court were heavily redacted, leaving insufficient grounds to continue, and also criticised SBB’s evaluation; Siemens won the contract in November 2025, with an investment volume of CHF 2bln. In healthcare, shares of UnitedHealth (UNH), Humana (HUM) and CVS (CVS) rallied in extended US trading on news that the US will raise average Medicare Advantage payments to private insurers by 2.48% in 2027, with a 2.5% risk-assessment adjustment taking the total increase to about 5%; CMS said this would add more than USD 13bln in payments. AbbVie (ABBV) and Roche’s (ROP SW) Genentech will join TrumpRx; AbbVie will offer Humira at an 86% discount, with coupons lowering the uninsured price to USD 950 (from more than USD 6,900), while Genentech will offer Xofluza at about USD 50 (from USD 168). Sanofi (SAN FP) said lunsekimig met primary and key secondary endpoints in Phase II asthma and CRSwNP studies, with AIRCULES Phase IIb showing significant exacerbation reduction and improved lung function. In notable broker updates, Yara (YAR NO) was upgraded at Pareto Securities; Coloplast (COLOB DC) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; Keefe Bruyette initiated AJ Bell (AJB LN) with an Outperform rating, IG (IGG LN) with a Market Perform, Nordnet (SAVE SW) with an Underperform, and Plus 500 (PLUS LN) with a Market Perform.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: US Vice President JD Vance is meeting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest during his April 7-8 visit, which includes bilateral talks and public remarks. In Europe, final service and composite PMI data for March are due. Stateside, weekly ADP jobs figures (prev. stood at an average of 10k/week over the four-week window), durable goods orders for February (exp. -0.5% M/M from a prior 0.0%), RCM/TIPP economic optimism (exp. at 48.1 from 47.5). Atlanta Fed will update its Q1 GDP tracking estimate (which is currently modelling growth of 1.6%). Ahead of this week’s inflation data, the NY Fed will release its survey of consumer expectations (in February, 1yr median inflation expectations declined 0.1ppts to 3.0%; 3yr and 5yr expectations were also at 3.0%). In later trade, US consumer credit stats for February are due. In energy, afterhours, the API will release its gauge of weekly inventories; the EIA will in hours release its monthly short-term energy outlook report. On today’s speakers’ slate, Fed's Williams (voter) will speak on Bloomberg TV; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) will speak on the outlook for policy and the economy; Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter, dovish) will speak on the economic outlook and the labour market. In supply, Germany will sell EUR 1.5bln of 2035 and 2050 Green Bunds; the US Treasury will auction USD 58bln of 3yr notes. Notable corporate reports due today include: LEVI.