EUROPEAN OPEN: RHM GY targets F126 contractor role this summer; SZG GY posts loss, guides FY26 profit higher; PST IM bids EUR 10.8bln for TIT IM; VOW3 GY says restructuring to continue despite backlog; STMPA FP starts China-made STM32 volume deliveries

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities have started the week on the back foot amid increasing geopolitical concerns that threaten to weigh on global growth and boost inflation. APAC equities were lower amid concerns a prolonged war, after US President Trump on the weekend threatened attacks on power plants around the Strait of Hormuz if Iran does not open up the Strait by Monday; Iran has already warned that it would attack key infrastructure across the Middle East if Trump followed through on his threats. Crude prices rose overnight as investors assessed Trump’s ultimatum; Brent climbed toward USD 113/bbl, but is currently sub USD 110/bbl. Gold has now erased its 2026 gains, falling again as the Middle East war, now in its fourth week, increased inflation risks and expectations that central bank’s will struggle to lower rates. Bullion has fallen towards USD 4,200/oz overnight. Copper fell to its lowest in more than three months amid the reduced risk appetite, inflation and growth concerns. Asia FX mostly weakened against the USD as higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict raised concern about slower regional growth, amid concerns that the crisis is already hitting Asian economies, and could lead to energy shortages if prolonged. Bitcoin fell below USD 69k, to its lowest since early March. In politics, German Chancellor Merz’s CDU ousted the Social Democrats from power in Rhineland-Palatinate after 35 years, winning 31% of the vote against the SPD’s 25.9%, easing the impact of the CDU’s defeat in neighbouring Baden-Wuerttemberg two weeks earlier. In France, the far-right RN party had mixed local election results, winning in smaller cities but losing key targets including Marseille and Toulon, while ally Eric Ciotti was elected mayor of Nice. UK PM Starmer will chair a COBRA meeting on the Iran war’s economic impact, with ministers and the BoE Governor Bailey expected to attend; the meeting follows a call with President Trump on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In M&A, Poste Italiane (PST IM) launched a cash-and-share bid for Telecom Italia (TIT IM) valuing the company at EUR 10.8bln (EUR 0.635/shr, comprising EUR 0.167 in cash plus 0.0218 newly issued Poste shares per TIM share, a 9.01% premium to Friday’s close); Poste expects completion by year-end and sees pre-tax synergies of about EUR 0.7bln a year. Delivery Hero (DHER GY) agreed to sell its foodpanda business in Taiwan to Grab Holdings for USD 600mln, with net proceeds to be used for debt repayment and general corporate purposes. In healthcare, Bayer (BAYN GY) received first approval in Japan for its low-dose MRI contrast agent, covering all indications and all age groups including children and newborns, with further filings ongoing worldwide. In tech, of note for tech stocks, Elon Musk announced a USD 20bln Austin semiconductor facility by Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX to vertically integrate chip production for AI, robotics and space computing, targeting vehicles, humanoid robots and satellites. STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) said China-manufactured STM32 microcontrollers have begun volume production, with first deliveries of fully made-in-China units to China-based customers under way. In financials, Monte Paschi’s (BMPS IM) board will today discuss whether Luigi Lovaglio can remain CEO after he joined a rival minority shareholder slate, a move seen as incompatible with the bank’s interests. In industrials, Rheinmetall (RHM GY) plans to take over the delayed F126 frigate project for the German Navy and expects to win the general contractor role this summer, Welt reports; it aims to accelerate production and deliver the first of six planned frigates in H2 2031. In materials, Salzgitter (SZG GY) FY25 pretax profit EUR -27.7mln (prev. 296.2mln Y/Y), revenue EUR 9bln (vs prelim. 9bln); sees FY sales of EUR 9.5bln (exp. 9.86bln), EBITDA between 500-600mln (exp. 711.8mln); exec says it anticipates positive stimulus for its industry from the EU’s trade defence measures, and sees a moderate improvement in the economic environment. In consumer sectors, Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) CEO Blume said restructuring will continue despite a rising order backlog, Bild reports; he said VW is applying clear manufacturing cost targets across plants in Germany, Europe and China to avoid costly overcapacity. In notable broker updates, Croda (CRDA LN) was upgraded at Goldman Sachs; FLSmidth (FLS DC) was upgraded at Danske Bank; ISS (ISS DC) was upgraded at Nordea; Belimo (BEAN SW) was upgraded at Kempen; Sandoz (SDZ SW) was downgraded at RBC; Teleperformance (TEP FP) was downgraded at Citi; National Grid (NG/ LN) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs; SSE (SSE LN) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: The European morning sees the release of the ECB’s Q1 wage tracker, and the ECB’s survey of monetary analysts. Eurozone flash consumer confidence for March is expected to fall to -16 (from -12.2). The US Day sees the release of the Chicago Fed national activity index for February (expected at 0.27 from 0.18). January’s construction spending figures are also due. After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 2.3% in Q1. CERAWeek gets underway (Mon-Fri), and today’s speakers include: DoE’s Wright, Chevron’s (CVX) Wirth, officials from ADNOC, NextEra (NEE), TotalEnergies (TTE), Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental (OXY), Equinor (EQNR), SLB (SLB). Fed’s Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) will speak on Bloomberg TV at 08:45EDT/12:45GMT; Miran last week was the sole voter at the March FOMC to call for a rate reduction; he has previously cited labour market weakness. Elsewhere, ECB chief economist Lane and ECB’s Cipollone are due to deliver remarks today. UK PM Starmer will chair a COBRA meeting on the Iran war’s economic impact, with ministers and the BoE Governor Bailey expected to attend; the meeting follows a call with President Trump on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: CERAWeek, Japan CPI, UK inflation, UK retail sales, flash PMI data. Notable corporate earnings due this week include: PDD, CTAS, PAYX, JEF, CCL.
• Click here for the CERAWeek schedule of key speakers
• Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview
• Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates