EUROPEAN OPEN: Trump plans 100% tariffs on generics by 2028; SAN SM affirms guidance; EQNR NO solid Q2, launches buyback ; AKZA NA EBITDA beats, affirms guidance; AIR FP targets near-doubling of earnings; VOW GY accelerates China autonomous driving push

EUROPEAN OPEN:

European equities have generally opened flat/lower. Overnight, APAC stocks were modestly up following the tech-led rebound on Wall Street. Nasdaq 100 futures are lower ahead of earnings from Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) today.
US forces entered an 11th consecutive night of strikes targeting Iran military operations centres, maritime capabilities, hangars, drone storage and logistics infrastructure amid Iranian attacks on over 30 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump signalled possible strikes near Iranian uranium-enrichment sites, and has ruled out talks with Tehran until it is ready for meaningful negotiations. In recent days, mediators have intensified efforts with Iranian officials, as Iran has also widened its operations against other Gulf states.
Crude futures continue to climb; September Brent topped USD 92/bbl after President Trump played down any near-term Iran talks and threatened broader strikes. Analysts note that the situation in the Black Sea is also stoking prices higher, after the CPC terminal this week suspended oil loadings following tanker attacks (the terminal handled around 1.7mln BPD in June); analysts say that any prolonged suspension risks forcing upstream production cuts.
In FX, USDJPY topped 163.00, the weakest the yen has traded vs the USD since 1986, underpinned by rising US Treasury yields amid US-Iran tensions which have driven oil prices higher. FinMin Katayama has reiterated that authorities can take action on FX at any time.
Gold continues its upside, with bullion prices topping USD 4,100/oz as dip-buyers providing support. Gold ETF holdings rose by roughly 7.4 tons on Tuesday, the largest daily inflow in over a month. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have recently forecast gold prices could reach USD 4,450/oz by Q4.
In data, UK CPI rose 0.1% M/M in June (exp. 0.1%), with the annual rate cooling to 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.8%), the lowest rate since March last year, driven by cheaper petrol, diesel, and food. Services inflation cooled slightly to 3.6% Y/Y (from 3.7%). Core CPI rose 0.3% M/M, matching the prior pace, while the annual rate was unchanged at 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.5%). Analysts expect the BoE to hold rates next week, with markets fully discounting just one hike this year, along with a 60% probability of a second.
In UK fiscal news, UK PM Burnham has walked back an earlier suggestion he could raise the GBP 12,570 income tax personal allowance, with government sources confirming no such change is under consideration as part of his cost-of-living plans, according to Bloomberg, which added that the climbdown appears aimed at reassuring bond markets of the new administration’s fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, Politico reports that the UK MoD is reportedly considering a gradual “glide path” to raising defence spending from 2.6% of GDP to 3.5% by 2035, rather than committing to a hard target of 3% by 2030.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

HEALTHCARE: US President Trump said US generic-drug imports will face zero tariffs from 1st August 2026, a 100% levy from August 2028 and 200% a year later; the phased tariffs aim to encourage US production, while patented and branded-drug tariffs remain unchanged.
TECH: SK Hynix (SKHY) denied reports it was acquiring Intel’s (INTC) Ohio semiconductor campus to establish US front-end memory production, with Intel also denying any sale was under way. Super Micro (SMCI) sees Q4 revenue near the low end of its USD 11.0–12.5bln guidance range, though its prelim gross margin view was well above prior expectations owing to a favourable customer and product mix; its backlog rose to a record high in the quarter.
MATERIALS: Akzo Nobel (AKZA NA) posted Q2 revenue of EUR 2.59bln (exp. 2.57bln) and adj. EBITDA of EUR 398mln (exp. 392mln), though net income of EUR 139mln missed expectations (exp. 180mln); it affirmed FY26 guidance, flagging robust pricing and cost efficiency, adding that its merger with Axalta is progressing as planned.
CONSUMER: Volkswagen (VOW GY) is accelerating its driver assistance and autonomous vehicle push in China with Horizon Robotics, with Level 2 systems due on Chinese roads in Q3, and Level 3 models targeted for delivery from H2 2027, in line with China’s planned rollout of higher autonomy standards in mass-market passenger cars.
FINANCIALS: Santander (SAN SM) posted Q2 net income of EUR 3.52bln (exp. 3.53bln), total income of EUR 15.68bln (exp. 15.70bln), and EPS of 0.23 (exp. 0.30) dragged lower by non-recurring items tied to the acquisitions of TSB and its Polish unit stake; H1 adj. net income rose 15% Y/Y to EUR 7.3bln, pretax profit grew 11% Y/Y to EUR 10.3bln; affirmed FY26 guidance.
ENERGY: Equinor (EQNR NO) posted Q2 adj. EPS of 1.33 (exp. 1.38), revenue of USD 35.18bln (exp. 35.1bln), adj. operating income after tax of USD 3.44bln (exp. 3.36bln), supported by higher oil and gas prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. Affirmed its 2026 outlook, and launched a third share buyback tranche of USD 1.125bln, bringing total 2026 buybacks to USD 3bln.
INDUSTRIALS: Airbus (AIR FP) targets adj. EBIT of EUR 12-13bln by 2029; it also approved a EUR 5bln three-year buyback, and left 2026 guidance unchanged; CEO struck an upbeat tone, citing unprecedented order visibility, an improved supply chain, and expectations that the A320 programme will be running at full rates by 2029. Rheinmetall (RHM GY) plans to more than double annual gunpowder output at its Aschau am Inn plant to 4,200 metric tons by 2028; it will also produce over 1mln propellant charges, invest EUR 350mln at Aschau and nearly double staffing to 1,300, alongside EUR 300mln for plants in Switzerland and Spain. GEA Group (G1A GY) beat Q2 expectations with order intake of EUR 1.49bln (exp. 1.41bln), revenue of EUR 1.44bln (exp. 1.38bln); raised FY26 guidance, now sees organic revenue growth of +6-8% (prev. +5-7%), EBITDA margin of 17.0-17.4% (prev. 16.6-17.2%), and ROCE of 36-40% (prev. 34-38%).
NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Aberdeen (ABDN LN) initiated with Buy at Peel Hunt; British American Tobacco (BATS LN) initiated with Buy at BTIG. Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN) upgraded at Jefferies; Nestle (NESN SW) upgraded at Jefferies; Atlas Copco (ATCOB SS) upgraded at Goldman Sachs. Travis Perkins (TPK LN) downgraded at Barclays; Wienerberger (WIE AV) downgraded at Citi; Danone (BN FP) downgraded at Jefferies.

DAY AHEAD:

DATA: Stateside, weekly MBA mortgage applications are due.
SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 2bln of 2041 and 2047 debt; US sells USD 13bln of 20-year bonds.
ENERGY: EIA will publish weekly energy inventory data; overnight on Tuesday, API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +2.6mln bbls (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing stocks saw a draw of -0.7mln, distillates inventories saw a larger than expected build of +1.8mln bbls (exp. +1.0mln), while gasoline stocks posted a smaller than expected draw of -1.4mln bbls (exp. -1.8mln).
EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings reports due to be released today include: Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Philip Morris (PM), GE Vernova (GEV), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), CSX (CSX), Moody’s (MCO), CME (CME), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), PulteGroup (PHM), Southwest Airlines (LUV).

This is a session-preview wrap rather than a single event, and the through-line is the Middle East escalation feeding crude, the yen and gold simultaneously, a combination that has historically been the dominant cross-asset driver when it appears. The oil leg is the transmission channel to watch: physical disruption at export infrastructure alongside Strait of Hormuz attacks on commercial shipping is the configuration that has tended to sustain a geopolitical risk premium in Brent beyond the initial headline spike, via freight, insurance and prompt spreads, rather than the fade that follows headline-only episodes. USDJPY at multi-decade extremes with the finance ministry repeating verbal intervention language follows a familiar sequence in which jawboning precedes unilateral action only when the move is one-sided and disorderly; the tell is whether official rhetoric escalates in specificity. The generics tariff phasing, with levies stepping up over several years, fits the established pattern of sectoral trade measures that matter more for supply-chain positioning than for near-term pricing. On the earnings side, affirmed guidance from a large European bank and an energy major alongside raised targets at an aerospace name is consistent with prior cycles in which guidance language, not the prints, drives the opening gap. The immediate follow-ons are the EIA inventories against the reported API build, the 20-year auction into rising yields, and the Alphabet and Tesla prints after the close.