EUROPEAN OPEN: TSMC beats expectations amid robust AI infastructure demand; ASML NA plans price hikes; UBER confirms USD 14.8bln offer for DHER GY; ABBN SW misses Q2 EPS, bids for ROR LN; NOVOB DC Wegovy pill approved in Europe

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities start mixed, following the mixed tone overnight in APAC trade; the KOSPI saw sharp downside before paring losses, as chip sector valuations faced scrutiny after a blistering rally. In the European morning, TSMC (TSM) reported solid results, and sees strong demand ahead (see below).
• Crude futures are trading softer, with Brent beneath USD 85/bbl, erasing earlier gains from US strikes on Iran.
• CENTCOM launched fresh strikes on Iran targeting missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island, followed by a subsequent wave hitting air defence sites, missile and drone facilities and coastal surveillance installations. CENTCOM also said it struck the unladen, US-sanctioned super tanker Belma near Iran’s Kharg Island after it allegedly ignored warnings and violated a renewed shipping blockade. The attack was the first on a vessel since the blockade was reimposed.
• Japanese FinMin Katayama reiterated her intention to pursue measures encouraging GPIF to invest more in domestic financial assets, while clarifying in parliament that she has no authority to intervene in or dictate the fund’s investment decisions. Elsewhere, according to Bloomberg, JPY options suggest authorities are unlikely to intervene in the currency until USDJPY reaches 165.00.
• Bloomberg’s British Pound Index has risen to its highest level in a year following Wednesday reports that Andy Burnham has picked Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor; gilts also rallied. A Burnham spokesperson said no final decision has been made. Elsewhere, incoming UK PM Andy Burnham has been warned of financial stability risks from a rapid introduction of a land tax, despite the policy drawing cross-party support from both Labour’s left wing and free-market advocates who regard it as the “least bad tax.”
• In data, UK GDP rose 0.1% in May (exp. 0.0%), driven solely by services as production and construction both fell. The unexpected expansion came despite political uncertainty and elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The annual rate of growth rose to 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.4%, prev. 1.2%), while the three-month average rate stood at 0.7% in May (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.7%).

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: TSMC (TSM) Q2 net income +36% Y/Y at TWD 706.6bln (exp. TWD 623.7bln), revenue TWD 1.27tln (vs prev. 933.8bln Y/Y), as AI infrastructure demand drove robust results. The company has set aside approximately USD 56bln in capex for 2026 and is investing an estimated USD 265bln in its Arizona campus. Execs also noted very strong demand, does not foresee a bottleneck for the capacity expansion plan. Expects continued strong demand in Q3; sees Q3 revenue at between USD 44.6-45.8bln (exp. 42.6bln); for FY26, sees capex between 60-64bln (prev. saw 52-56bln); sees FY26 revenue to be slightly above 40% in USD terms (prev. saw above 30%). ASML (ASML NA) reportedly plans to raise prices, The Information reports. This will likely bring the Co. into conflict with TSMC (TSM), who has already pushed back against ASML’s pricing plans.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Publicis (PUB FP) H1 revenue EUR 7.23bln (exp. 7.59bln), EBITDA EUR 1.53bln (prev. 1.50bln), EPS EUR 3.17 (prev. 3.28); raised FY organic net revenue growth guidance to 4.5-5% (from 4-5%) and confirmed slight operating margin improvement.
• CONSUMER: Uber Technologies (UBER) said it has offered to buy Delivery Hero (DHER GY) for EUR 41.50/shr in cash, representing an equity value of USD 14.8bln. The deal would strengthen Uber’s competition with DoorDash (DASH) outside the US. Ocado (OCDO LN) H1 2026 revenue GBP 1.04bln (exp. GBP 0.97bln), group adj. EBITDA GBP 432mln (prev. GBP 92mln Y/Y); expects to turn cash flow positive in H2 2026, and cash flow positive in FY27.
• INDUSTRIALS: Airbus (AIR FP) is reportedly discussing sales of about 15 A330neo jets to Flynas and Condor; it is also shifting some US-built A350 fuselage parts from sea to air transport to mitigate delays. Of note for BAE Systems (BA/ LN), the US approves the proposed USD 1.96bln weapons system sale to Saudi Arabia. Sodexo (SW FP) launched its 2030 growth plan, aiming to accelerate growth and restore competitiveness; aims to reach organic growth and operating margin above 5% by FY30. Separately, Sodexo has been awarded a global food services contract by Meta (META), no term disclosed. Diploma (DPLM LN) Q3 organic growth +15%, raised FY26 guidance, now sees organic revenue growth of 14% (prev. saw 12%), and an operating margin of approximately 26.5% (prev. saw around 25%). Experian (EXPN LN) Q1 revenue growth 10%; affirmed its FY27 outlook, targets total revenue growth of 8-11%, organic revenue growth of 6-8%. ABB (ABBN SW) Q2 EPS USD 0.68 (exp. 0.74), revenue USD 9.48bln, operating EBITA USD 1.93bln, orders USD 12.04bln; expects FY margin improvement, low-to-mid teens comp revenue growth, up to USD 2bln in buybacks; will acquire Rotork (ROR LN) for GBP 5.03/shr.
• ENERGY: TotalEnergies (TTE FP) guided Q2 hydrocarbon production at nearly 2.4mln boepd, with the Middle East conflict impact estimated at 210K boepd (prev. saw 360K), driven by UAE offshore production ramp-up and regional restart of output during June.
• FINANCIALS: Partners Group (PGHN SW) reported H1 inflows of USD 16bln (exp. 14.5bln), and assets under management of USD 186bln; it maintained FY client demand guidance of USD 26-32bln, while warning redemptions could slow net asset growth by 1-2% over 18 months. Nordea’s (NDAFI FH) Q2 net fee and commission income +11% Y/Y to EUR 880mln (exp. 858.6mln). Assets under management in its wealth business reached a record high.
• HEALTHCARE: Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) said the European Commission has approved its once-daily Wegovy pill for weight management in adults with obesity or who are overweight.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Fresenius Medical Care (FME GY) initiated with Market Perform at Bernstein; Hikma (HIK LN) initiated with Buy at Citi. HSBC (HSBA LN) downgraded at Erste; Evotec (EVT GY) downgraded at Berenberg; Richemont (CFR SW) downgraded at ESN. Richemont (CFR SW) upgraded at RBC; Nokia (NOKIA FH) upgraded at SEB; B&M (BME LN) upgraded at Deutsche Bank; Elisa (ELISA FH) upgraded at Nordea; Klepierre (LI FP) upgraded at Oddo Securities

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In North America, US June retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.9%); Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July is also due (prev. 10.3); weekly initial jobless claims (11th July week) are expected at 217K (prev. 215K), and continuing claims (4th July) at 1,820K (prev. 1,814K); the NAHB housing market index for July (prev. 35), and pending home sales for June (prev. 3.8% M/M). After today’s data releases, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow now tracking estimate for Q2 (is currently tracking growth of 1.3%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s speakers’ slate includes: Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) on the economy; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) on the outlook; Fed’s Jefferson (voter) speaks on the outlook.
• SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 12-14bln across 2029, 2031, 2032 and 2033 lines, and EUR 1-1.5bln across 2032, 2040 and 2053 linkers. Spain to sell EUR 5-6bln across 2029, 2033 and 2056 lines. UK to sell GBP 4.25bln of 2036 Gilts. US will announce sizes for next week’s 20yr reopening and 10yr TIPS supply.
• ENERGY: Weekly EIA natgas storage change data for the week is expected to show a build of 45bcf (prev. 61bcf). WTI August 2026 options expire.
• EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: UnitedHealth (UNH), GE Aerospace (GE), Netflix (NFLX), Prologis (PLD), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Abbott (ABT), US Bancorp (USB), State Street (STT), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Alcoa (AA).
• PRIMER - US RETAIL SALES (13:30BST/08:30GMT): Headline retail sales are expected to rise +0.2% M/M in June (prev. 0.9%), though the core measure is seen unchanged M/M (prev. +0.8%). Ahead of the data, the Chicago Fedʼs advance retail trade summary sees retail and food services sales (ex-auto) increasing +0.7% seasonally adjusted, and +1.4% when adjusted for inflation – the projected real gain would be the largest of 2026 so far, exceeding February’s 0.8%. Elsewhere, during the month, Amazonʼs Prime Day saw US online spending rise +9.3% Y/Y between 23-26th June, to more than USD 26.4bln, supported by discounts; however, the average order fell to USD 47.66 (from USD 53.34), which analysts have said suggests that consumers remain price-sensitive. BofA says consumer spending momentum was very strong in the month, with total credit and debit card spending rising 6.3% Y/Y (vs 5.1% Y/Y in May), the strongest growth in over four years, noting that with gasoline prices falling, the increase in spending growth is almost entirely a discretionary story. On wages, BofA says that there has been a notable convergence in wages and spending across income cohorts; “in June, lower-income households’ after-tax wage growth rose above that of middle-income households,” it writes, “whether these trends persist into the second half of the year will hinge on whether underlying labour market momentum is sustained.”