Daily US Equity Opening News - TSM beats amid robust AI demand; NVDA launches Jetson Thor, Japan to buy 27.5k Rubin chips; S.Korea to ban new leveraged single-stock ETFs; Anthropic seeks new credit lines; UAL slips on soft Q3 view; JBHT Q2 beats

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In North America, US June retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.9%); Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July is also due (prev. 10.3); weekly initial jobless claims (11th July week) are expected at 217K (prev. 215K), and continuing claims (4th July) at 1,820K (prev. 1,814K); the NAHB housing market index for July (prev. 35), and pending home sales for June (prev. 3.8% M/M). After today’s data releases, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow now tracking estimate for Q2 (is currently tracking growth of 1.3%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s speakers’ slate includes: Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) on the economy; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) on the outlook; Fed’s Jefferson (voter) speaks on the outlook.
• SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 12-14bln across 2029, 2031, 2032 and 2033 lines, and EUR 1-1.5bln across 2032, 2040 and 2053 linkers. Spain to sell EUR 5-6bln across 2029, 2033 and 2056 lines. UK to sell GBP 4.25bln of 2036 Gilts. US will announce sizes for next week’s 20yr reopening and 10yr TIPS supply.
• ENERGY: Weekly EIA natgas storage change data for the week is expected to show a build of 45bcf (prev. 61bcf). WTI August 2026 options expire.
• EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: UnitedHealth (UNH), GE Aerospace (GE), Netflix (NFLX), Prologis (PLD), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Abbott (ABT), US Bancorp (USB), State Street (STT), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Alcoa (AA).
• PRIMER - US RETAIL SALES (13:30BST/08:30GMT): Headline retail sales are expected to rise +0.2% M/M in June (prev. 0.9%), though the core measure is seen unchanged M/M (prev. +0.8%). Ahead of the data, the Chicago Fedʼs advance retail trade summary sees retail and food services sales (ex-auto) increasing +0.7% seasonally adjusted, and +1.4% when adjusted for inflation – the projected real gain would be the largest of 2026 so far, exceeding February’s 0.8%. Elsewhere, during the month, Amazonʼs Prime Day saw US online spending rise +9.3% Y/Y between 23-26th June, to more than USD 26.4bln, supported by discounts; however, the average order fell to USD 47.66 (from USD 53.34), which analysts have said suggests that consumers remain price-sensitive. BofA says consumer spending momentum was very strong in the month, with total credit and debit card spending rising 6.3% Y/Y (vs 5.1% Y/Y in May), the strongest growth in over four years, noting that with gasoline prices falling, the increase in spending growth is almost entirely a discretionary story. On wages, BofA says that there has been a notable convergence in wages and spending across income cohorts; “in June, lower-income households’ after-tax wage growth rose above that of middle-income households,” it writes, “whether these trends persist into the second half of the year will hinge on whether underlying labour market momentum is sustained.”

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - CENTCOM launched fresh strikes on Iran targeting missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island, followed by a subsequent wave hitting air defence sites, missile and drone facilities and coastal surveillance installations. CENTCOM also said it struck the unladen, US-sanctioned super tanker Belma near Iran’s Kharg Island after it allegedly ignored warnings and violated a renewed shipping blockade. The attack was the first on a vessel since the blockade was reimposed.

TRADE:

• China Rare Earths - The IEA said China’s rare earth export curbs could put USD 6.5tln of annual downstream production outside China at risk if fully implemented; it recommended multilateral stockpiling of 11 high-risk materials at an initial cost of USD 9.2bln, and a net annual cost of USD 900mln. China’s share of rare earth refining has fallen from 90% to 85%, and could decline to 70% by 2035 if planned diversification projects proceed as scheduled.
• US-China - USTR Greer set modest expectations for the September Trump-Xi summit, describing it as a “stock-taking” exercise to confirm the relationship and verify China’s compliance with existing commitments rather than brokering new deals. Greer also noted China’s compliance with a rare earths pact is “not perfect.”
• US-Brazil - The Office of the US Trade Representative said it will impose 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports from 22nd July, following a year-long investigation that found Brazil engaged in unfair trade practices deemed unreasonable and discriminatory against US farmers, workers and exporters.
• USMCA - USTR Greer said USMCA talks with Mexico are progressing, describing Mexican negotiators as “pragmatic,” while talks with Canada have yet to produce any concessions. Greer said reducing the US trade deficit with Mexico is a core mandate, and that a breakthrough with Canada may require direct agreement between Trump and PM Carney. A third round of US-Mexico bilateral negotiations is scheduled for next week in Mexico City.
• US-Switzerland - USTR Greer praised Switzerland’s stance in trade negotiations, and its investments in the US, saying talks are moving in a “positive direction” as Switzerland seeks to secure a 15% tariff rate.
• US-Vietnam - USTR Greer said the US wants Vietnam to take further action on non-tariff barriers, intellectual property and economic security cooperation, including alignment on export controls, as a condition for advancing trade deal negotiations.

MACRO:

• China Bonds - China’s National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors told some bankers this week that local government financing vehicles whose outstanding notes exceed their 31st March 2023 levels should suspend ongoing bond sales and avoid new offerings, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
• Japan - Japanese FinMin Katayama reiterated her intention to pursue measures encouraging GPIF to invest more in domestic financial assets, while clarifying in parliament that she has no authority to intervene in or dictate the fund’s investment decisions.
• JPY - According to Bloomberg, Yen options suggest Japanese authorities are unlikely to intervene until USDJPY reaches 165.00.
• UK Politics - Incoming UK PM Andy Burnham has been warned of financial stability risks from a rapid introduction of a land tax, despite the policy drawing cross-party support from both Labour’s left wing and free-market advocates who regard it as the “least bad tax.”
• UK Growth - UK GDP rose 0.1% in May (exp. 0.0%), driven solely by services as production and construction both fell. The unexpected expansion came despite political uncertainty and elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The annual rate of growth rose to 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.4%, prev. 1.2%), while the three-month average rate stood at 0.7% in May (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.7%).
• BoK - The BoK raised its seven-day repo rate by 25bps to 2.75%, in a unanimous decision, its first hike since January 2023 and in line with expectations. It said 2026 GDP growth will considerably exceed its May forecast of 2.6%, with the government now projecting 3.0%, while inflation of 3.2% Y/Y in June remains above target. Governor Shin left policy options open for the 27th August confab, with the statement signalling further hikes remain likely.

TECH:

• South Korea - South Korean financial regulators are preparing rule changes for single-stock leveraged ETFs and plan to prohibit listings of new single-stock leveraged products.
• TSMC (TSM) - TSMC reported Q2 net income +36% Y/Y at TWD 706.6bln (exp. TWD 623.7bln), and revenue of TWD 1.27tln (vs prev. 933.8bln Y/Y), as AI infrastructure demand drove robust results. Q2 revenue from high-performance computing +20% Q/Q, revenue from smartphones -4% Q/Q; gross Margin was +9.1% Y/Y at 67.7%. The company has set aside approximately USD 56bln in capex for 2026 and is investing an estimated USD 265bln in its Arizona campus. Execs also noted very strong demand for leading edge technologies, and does not foresee a bottleneck for the capacity expansion plan. AI-related demand remains extremely robust. Expects continued strong demand in Q3; sees Q3 revenue at between USD 44.6-45.8bln (exp. 42.6bln), and sees gross margin between 66-67% (exp. 65.9%). For FY26, TSMC sees capex between 60-64bln (prev. saw 52-56bln); sees FY26 revenue to be slightly above 40% in USD terms (prev. saw above 30%). Separately, A US official noted that TSMC will add another USD 100bln of US investment.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia introduced Blackwell-powered T3000 and T2000 Jetson Thor modules for compact, power-efficient robotics, visual AI and edge workloads. Jetson AGX Thor adoption includes 1X, Agile Robots, Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, FANUC, Hitachi and Techman Robot, supported by new software memory optimisation and agent skills. Separately, Japan will buy 27,500 Rubin chips to build AI for robots, Bloomberg reports.
• SK Hynix (SKHY) - South Korea’s FX regulator is considering using its stabilisation fund to buy US dollars raised through SK Hynix’s planned ADR issuance. Most proceeds are expected to fund domestic investment, potentially creating a large dollar inflow and prompting over-the-counter purchases via banks to limit USDKRW volatility.
• Anthropic - Anthropic is discussing several billion dollars of new bank credit lines to increase liquidity before a planned IPO this year, according to The Information. The financing would supplement its existing USD 2.5bln five-year revolving credit facility, with participating banks potentially also serving as IPO underwriters.
• Atlassian (TEAM) - Atlassian launched Jira capabilities for AI-native software development, integrating agents including Claude Code, Cursor and GitHub Copilot with enterprise context, governance and workflow coordination.
• SoftBank (SFTBY), Hyundai (HYMPY) - Hyundai and its affiliates are moving to acquire SoftBank’s remaining stake in Boston Dynamics after SoftBank exercised a put option, giving Hyundai full ownership of the robotics firm. Hyundai first acquired a controlling stake from SoftBank in 2021, and is now accelerating commercialisation of its Atlas humanoid robot.
• Jabil (JBL) - Board authorised the repurchase of up to USD 1.5bln of common stock. CEO said buybacks remain a capital allocation priority, and reflect confidence in Jabil’s cash generation, balance sheet and ability to fund growth while returning capital to shareholders.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• New York Times (NYT) - The NYT filed a motion to quash federal grand jury subpoenas issued to its reporters over a story about security deficiencies in the Qatar-donated Air Force One aircraft (BA), calling the subpoenas “abusive and improper” and brought in bad faith. The subpoenas were issued by the US attorney for the Southern District of New York on 10th July in connection with what prosecutors described as a national security investigation.
• Publicis (PUBGY) - H1 revenue EUR 7.23bln (exp. 7.59bln), EBITDA EUR 1.53bln (prev. 1.50bln), EPS EUR 3.17 (prev. 3.28); raised FY organic net revenue growth guidance to 4.5-5% (from 4-5%) and confirmed slight operating margin improvement.

FINANCIALS:

• Apollo Global Management (APO) - The New York Yankees are in advanced talks with Apollo to raise about USD 3bln through mostly debt and some equity, according to the WSJ. The transaction could be announced soon, subject to negotiations and MLB approval, and would be Apollo’s largest financing with a US sports team.
• Nordea (NRDBY) - Nordea’s Q2 net fee and commission income +11% Y/Y to EUR 880mln (exp. 858.6mln). Assets under management in its wealth business reached a record high.

CONSUMER:

• Delivery Hero (DELHY), Uber Technologies (UBER) - Uber said it has offered to buy Delivery Hero for EUR 41.50/shr in cash, representing an equity value of USD 14.8bln. The deal would strengthen Uber’s competition with DoorDash (DASH) outside the US.
• Brazil Ags - Brazil FinMin Durigan said he plans to renegotiate over BRL 100bln in rural debt via a provisional measure, with a fiscal impact below BRL 4bln due to strict eligibility criteria. The programme covers farmers and cooperatives with production losses between 2019-2025, with repayment terms of 8-10 years and below-market interest rates. Debt payments on eligible rural debt have been suspended for 30 days from 14th July to allow producers to negotiate new terms.

INDUSTRIALS:

• US Defence Contractors - President Trump urged defence contractors to accelerate production, singling out General Dynamics (GD) for slower-than-desired submarine delivery. Trump cited targets including faster production of Patriot missiles and Tomahawks (RTX), amid concerns that the Iran conflict has stretched US stockpiles of critical munitions. Trump praised Boeing (BA) CEO Ortberg, stating that “I am the greatest salesman in the history of Boeing. If I were in the private sector, I would ask for a piece of the company.”
• United Airlines (UAL) - Shares slipped over 2% in extended trading after soft guidance for the next quarter. Q2 adj. EPS 1.99 (exp. 1.87), Q2 revenue USD 17.7bln (exp. 17.62bln). Capacity rose 3.5% Y/Y; TRASM increased 12.1%, CASM rose 15.2% and CASM-ex increased 6.1%; available liquidity was at USD 19.6bln, and trailing twelve-month net leverage was 2.2x. CEO said United is built to thrive in every environment, with schedule adjustments after oil prices spiked alongside continued customer investments across cabins, network expansion, Starlink and Relax Row. Based on oil prices in mid-July, it expects nearly USD 6bln of added FY26 fuel expense vs expectations at the start of the year, and expects to recover 80-90% of the fuel increase in Q3 and 100% by Q4. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 2.50-3.50 (exp. 3.48), Q3 all-in average fuel price of about USD 3.69/gallon, and expects Q3 and Q4 TRASM growth to exceed Q2. Raised FY26 guidance, sees adj. EPS between 9.00-11.00 (exp. 10.47; prev. saw 7.00-11.00) and adj. total capex of USD 7.5bln.
• SpaceX (SPCX) - CEO Musk said AI satellite V1 peak power specs has been raised to around 250kW, with average power of around 160kW. Separately, SpaceX short sellers have accumulated paper profits of USD 3.88bln, as shares fell to near the IPO price of USD 135, according to S3 Partners data. Approximately 28% of available stock are now sold short.
• American Airlines (AAL) - American Airlines elected John Dietrich to its board, where he will serve on the Audit and Finance Committees. Dietrich has 35 years’ aviation and air cargo experience, and was FedEx (FDX) executive vice-president and CFO from 2023-2026.

MATERIALS:

• Gold - Fidelity International plans to rebuild its gold position to overweight at some point; portfolio manager Ian Samson said he expects gold to end the year slightly higher than current levels near USD 4,000/oz, with a return to a bull market anticipated in 2027. Samson cut his position to neutral in January-February around the time gold’s bull run ended from a record near USD 5,600/oz, with the first bullish signal being a push to USD 4,300/oz or the 50-day moving average crossing above longer-term indicators.
• BHP Group (BHP) - BHP reported FY copper production -3% Y/Y at 1.95mln tons (exp. 1.95mln tons), and record iron ore output, rising +1% Y/Y at 264.7mln tons (exp. 264.1mln tons). Average realised copper prices +35% Y/Y; FY27 copper guidance is 1.65-1.80mln tons, with the decline attributed to lower grades at Escondida, while iron ore guidance is set at 260-272mln tons.
• J.B. Hunt (JBHT) - Q2 EPS 1.91 (exp. 1.73), Q2 revenue USD 3.50bln (exp. 3.26bln). Intermodal revenue +22% Y/Y, driven by 10% volume growth and an 11% increase in gross revenue per load; transcontinental loads +5%, Eastern network loads +16%. Dedicated Contract Services revenue +9% on productivity gains; Integrated Capacity Solutions revenue +49%, as volume rose +19% and revenue per load rose +26%. Final Mile Services revenue -6%, mainly reflecting known business losses as the company focuses on revenue quality and profitability.

ENERGY:

• India Energy Exports - India raised its diesel export levy to INR 15.5/litre (prev. INR 8.50) and jet fuel export levy to INR 14.5/litre (prev. INR 7.50) for the second half of July, as renewed US-Iran hostilities tighten global fuel markets. Gasoline export taxes were lowered to INR 2.5/litre (prev. INR 4).
• TotalEnergies (TTE) - TotalEnergies guided Q2 hydrocarbon production at nearly 2.4mln boepd, with the Middle East conflict impact estimated at 210K boepd (prev. saw 360K), driven by UAE offshore production ramp-up and regional restart of output during June.

HEALTHCARE:

• AtaiBeckley (ATAI), Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly is in talks to acquire psychedelic drugmaker AtaiBeckley at a premium to its approximately USD 2bln market value, according to Bloomberg. An announcement is possible as soon as this week.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo Nordisk said the European Commission has approved its once-daily Wegovy pill for weight management in adults with obesity or who are overweight.