EUROPEAN OPEN: UCG IM bids EUR 35bln for CBK GY; CRH LN to delist from LSE; NOVOB DC India semaglutide patent expires 20th March, opening door to cheaper copycats; TTE FP shuts offshore output in Qatar, Iraq, UAE; FLTR downgraded, RKT LN upgraded

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are starting the week with gains; APAC stocks mostly declined amid cautiousness at the start of a busy week of central bank activity. US strikes on Iranian military assets on Kharg Island have put one of Iran’s key oil hubs, which handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports, at the centre of the US-Iran conflict; Trump said oil infrastructure was spared, but warned it could be targeted next if tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored. Trump claimed that Iran is ready to make a deal to end the war, but that the US wants better terms; Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi said it has not sought talks or a ceasefire. White House advisor Hassett said the Pentagon estimates the Iran war could last 4-6 six weeks, but added that the ultimate decision lies with Trump. Oil futures rose, with Brent trading above USD 106/bbl, amid the supply disruptions. Reports note that US Treasuries have now erased their 2026 gains as war-driven oil price increases fuel concerns about inflation and growth, leading Wall Street to scale back its expectations for lower US rates over the next year. Gold fell as rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict added to inflation worries, lifting US Treasury yields to multiweek highs, and weighing on non-yielding assets. Analysts said persistently high energy prices could limit a more accommodative Fed stance this week. Iron ore prices fell after China’s CMRG temporarily eased some restrictions on BHP Group’s (BHP AT) Jimblebar Fines following a price surge; CMRG is allowing some Chinese steelmakers to collect cargoes that had accumulated at ports since a purchase ban imposed in September. Iron ore futures dropped to just above USD 103.35/ton in Singapore, before paring losses. However, aluminium rose after Aluminium Bahrain started a phased shutdown of three production lines, representing 19% of its 1.6mln ton capacity, as war in the Middle East disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and as it is limits output to conserve raw materials. Bitcoin rose above USD 74k, but has pared gains since. Amid a thin data calendar today, focus will remain on geopolitics; European Foreign ministers will today discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East situation; Al Jazeera reported that they will discuss protecting maritime routes, with the Strait of Hormuz at the top of the agenda. Elsewhere, Senior US and Chinese officials will continue meetings, which began on the weekend; talks in Paris covered agriculture, critical minerals, Boeing (BA), US energy imports and proposed trade and investment mechanisms.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In healthcare, Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOB DC) key India patent on semaglutide (the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy) expires on 20th March, paving the way for cheaper copies, Bloomberg reports; Indian drugmakers are expected to sell versions at about half the price. In healthcare, AstraZeneca’s (AZN LN) Imfinzi has been approved in the EU as the first and only perioperative immunotherapy for patients with early gastric and gastroesophageal cancers. Bayer’s (BAYN GY) Kerendia met its primary endpoint in its investigational phase 3 FIND-CKD study. Novartis (NOVN SW) announced a new share buyback for up to 10% of its own registered shares for the next three years. In energy, BP (BP/ LN) received approval to advance its Gulf of Mexico project, with the USD 5bln investment unlocking 10bln bbls, Reuters reported. TotalEnergies (TTE FP) said production in Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, representing about 15% of total output, has been shut down or is shutting due to the Middle East conflict. CRH (CRH LN) intends to delist its ordinary shares and 7% preference shares from the London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) and, subject to shareholder approval, cancel its 5% and 7% preference shares; its ordinary shares would then be solely listed on the NYSE. In financials, UniCredit (UCG IM) made a EUR 35bln takeover bid for Commerzbank (CBK GY), offering 0.485 UniCredit shares per Commerzbank share, implying EUR 30.8/shr and a 4% premium to the 13th March close; UniCredit said it does not expect to gain control. Barclays (BARC LN) is reportedly in advanced preparations to restart the ECM business in India after shutting it down 10 years ago, according to The Economic Times reports. In notable broker updates, Morgan Stanley downgraded Big Yellow Group (BYG LN), LondonMetric (LMP LN), Segro (SGRO LN); National Grid (NG/ LN) was downgraded at UBS; Taylor Wimpey (TW/ LN) was downgraded at Stifel; Voestalpine (VOE AV) was downgraded at Oddo. Kepler upgraded Centrica (CNA LN) and RWE (RWE GY); Zurich Insurance (ZURN SW) was upgraded at Kepler; Ipsen (IPN FP) was upgraded at BNP Paribas; Flutter (FLTR LN) was downgraded at Kepler; Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: European Foreign ministers will today discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East situation; Al Jazeera reported that they will discuss protecting maritime routes, with the Strait of Hormuz at the top of the agenda. Senior US and Chinese officials will continue meetings, which began on the weekend; talks in Paris covered agriculture, critical minerals, Boeing, US energy imports and proposed trade and investment mechanisms. The European data slate is thin. The North American day sees the release of Canadian inflation data for February (headline expected to rise 0.1% M/M vs a prior 0.0%, while the core rate is expected to rise by +0.2% M/M, matching the January rate). Stateside, the Empire manufacturing release for March is seen easing to 4.0 from 7.1; US industrial production is seen rising +0.3% M/M in February (prev. +0.7%), and manufacturing output is expected to rise by 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.6%). The NAHB’s housing market index is seen rising one point to 37. Notable corporate earnings due today include DLTR. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang will deliver a keynote address, as its GTC gets underway (it runs Monday through Thursday).
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: NVDA GTC, and policy announcements from the FOMC, BoJ, BoE, ECB, RBA, and SNB. Notable corporate earnings due this week include: MU, FDX, BABA.
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