EUROPEAN OPEN: ULVR confirms talks with MKC; Former DBK GY manager sues for GBP 473mln; UK FCA cuts estimated car loan redress bill; Mundys raises stake in GET FP; DGE LN upgraded, BAS GY downgraded

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities start on the front foot after mixed trade in APAC overnight, where sentiment was choppy amid swings in oil and conflicting geopolitical headlines. US President Trump threatened to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached soon, although the WSJ also reported he told aides he is willing to end the US military operation in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. The IRGC said the Strait is fully under the control of its forces and warned that any hostile movement would be met with missiles and drones, adding that operations are continuing; it also confirmed it had targeted a ship in the Gulf. In commodities, oil fluctuated after the WSJ report suggested Trump may be prepared to end the campaign without restoring full access through Hormuz. WTI, having settled above USD 100/bbl on Monday for the first time since 2022, eased to around USD 103/bbl after earlier gains linked to another Iranian tanker attack in the Persian Gulf, while Brent traded above USD 107/bbl. Gold rose after comments from Fed Chair Powell and Williams indicated policy remains in a good place, helping to temper rate-hike expectations; bullion climbed before paring gains to trade near USD 4,555/oz. Goldman Sachs said gold could reach USD 5,400/oz by year-end, citing low speculative positioning, expectations for two Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank demand, with official-sector buying seen at around 60 tonnes per month. In data, Prelim French HICP inflation rose +0.9% M/M in March (exp. 0.8%), with the annual rate ticking up to 1.7% Y/Y (exp. 1.6%, prev. 0.9%). German retail sales fell by -0.6% M/M in February (exp. 0.3%, prev. -0.9%), with the annual rate slowing to 0.7% Y/Y (exp. 1.0, prev. 1.2%); German import prices rose +0.3% M/M in February (exp. 0.2%), with the annual rate unchanged at -2.3% Y/Y (exp. -2.1%). BRC data showed UK store goods prices rose 1.2% Y/Y in March (exp. 1.3%, prev. 1.1% Y/Y); the retail industry warned shoppers to expect further price rises; the survey was conducted just after the US-Iran war began, and suggests higher energy costs had not yet fed through to household budgets. Separately, UK food and drink exports to the US fell 8.6% Y/Y in H2 2025 (vs +19% in H1) after US tariffs raised prices on products including whisky and infant formula, the Food and Drink Federation said. Nationwide reported UK house prices rose +0.9% M/M in March (exp. 0.6%), with the annual rate rising to 2.2% Y/Y from 1.0%; the building society said the rebound suggests renewed market momentum after a slowdown around the turn of the year; however, higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East have increased uncertainty, with slower growth, higher inflation and an unclear interest-rate outlook. Final UK GDP growth in Q4 printed 1% Y/Y (exp. 1%, prev. 1.2%). Ahead, EU energy ministers will hold talks today to coordinate a response to Iran war-related disruption in oil and gas markets; Eurozone flash inflation data for March; US JOLTS data for February; Fedspeak comes via Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Schmid; after the US close, Nike (NKE) is set to report earnings.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In consumer sectors, McCormick’s (MKC) board met on Monday to review the transaction with Unilever (ULVR LN) to combine their food businesses, and an announcement could come as soon as Tuesday, WSJ reports; the deal is a cash-and-stock deal that would create a food company worth about USD 60bln including debt; Unilever confirmed it is in talks today. (It is also worth noting that MKC is due to report earnings today). In financials, Swiss lawmakers signalled a compromise on UBS’ (UBSG SW) USD 22bln capital plan, assuring senior executives they will water down stringent new rules. Former Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) manager Michele Faissola sued the bank in London for at least GBP 473mln, alleging he was wrongly blamed for the Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) accounting scandal; other former employees are also suing, with total claims of at least GBP 664mln. Of note for UK financials, UK said lenders face a GBP 7.5bln car loan redress bill (vs prior estimate of GBP 8.2bln), while the FCA cut its estimated total bill to firms from GBP 11bln to GBP 9.1bln. In healthcare, AstraZeneca (AZN LN) said the Phase III MULBERRY randomised, placebo-controlled trial in previously untreated children with HPP showed efzimfotase alfa delivered statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health. Sanofi’s (SAN FP) Rezurock was approved in the EU to treat chronic graft-vs-host disease. In industrials, Rheinmetall (RHM GY) and Boeing (BA) Australia formed a partnership to offer the MQ-28 Ghost Bat for Germany’s collaborative combat aircraft procurement by 2029; Rheinmetall will act as system manager in Germany, handling integration with Bundeswehr systems. Mundys will acquire up to 9.5% of Getlink (GET FP), taking its holding to 19.0% initially, and potentially 25.0%, while stating it does not intend to take control. In notable broker updates, Diageo (DGE LN) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank, Air Liquide (AI FP) was upgraded at Kepler; BASF (BAS GY) was downgraded at Kepler, Givaudan (GIVN SW) was downgraded at Berenberg.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: EU energy ministers will hold talks on today to coordinate a response to Iran war-related disruption in oil and gas markets; the talks will focus on filling gas storage for next winter, and stabilising oil product markets, amid concerns over tightening diesel and jet fuel supplies. US War Secretary Hegseth and US General Caine will hold a press briefing at 13:00BST/08:00EDT. In data, Eurozone flash HICP inflation data is expected to see the core rate unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y in March, while the headline is expected to jump to 2.7% Y/Y (from 1.9%). Stateside, the US JOLTs data for February are expected to ease to 6.87mln (from 6.946mln); in January, the Quits Rate was unchanged at 2.0%, while the Vacancy Rate rose to 4.2% from 3.9%. Elsewhere, FHFA and Case-Shiller house price indices will be released. In Canada, GDP stats for January and February are due (the latter is seen rising +0.1% M/M, while the former is expected to be unchanged). On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; text and Q&A are expected) will speak to small businesses at CBA Live 2026; Fed’s Barr (text and Q&A are expected) will virtually speak on stabelcoins at a Federalist Society event; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish; text/Q&A tbc) will give opening remarks at the Chicago Fed Economic Mobility Project’s virtual event, on human capital in the time of low real rates; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; text and Q&A are expected) will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook; elsewhere, Riksbank’s Thedeen and Jansson are set to speak. Today’s ECB bulletin covers adopting and investing in AI. In supply, Germany will sell EUR 5.0bln of 2028 Schatz. The Dairy Auction results will be published today; last time, the change in GDT price index was +0.1%, and WMP prices fell -4.0%. Notable corporate earnings due today include: Nike (NKE), McCormick (MKC), FactSet (FDS), PVH (PVH).