EUROPEAN OPEN: ULVR LN & KHC held talks on food unit merger; HSBA LN weighs 20k job cuts; AZN LN to build cell therapy site in Shanghai; BP LN sells Gelsenkirchen refinery, raises cost cut target; Ahead, ECB, BoE, SNB, Riksbank, CNB

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened in the red. Overnight, APAC shares and Wall Street declined as attacks on major Middle East energy infrastructure pushed oil prices higher, intensifying concerns regarding the supply impact, and increasing inflation concerns, while the Fed kept rates unchanged, projected one cut this year, and said the Middle East conflict made the outlook uncertain (see below for recap). Brent climbed to USD 114/bbl; analysts note how Brent and WTI prices have surged unevenly amid the Middle East conflict, with the US gauge trading at an almost USD 12/bbl to Brent on Wednesday, the widest level since early 2015. Elsewhere, US fuel makers increased purchases of Venezuelan heavy crude, with imports doubling in the week to 13th March, taking it to the highest since late 2024, government data showed. Oil shipments from Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador rose by more than 1mln BPD collectively over that window. Gold has continued to ease following six straight daily declines, the longest losing streak since late 2024, with bullion trading around USD 4,765/oz as European trade gets underway; analysts said that the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged reinforced a wait-for-clarity approach, while oil prices and geopolitical risks limit the scope for cuts this year. Copper fell to its lowest since December, erasing its 2026 gains, as the worsening Middle East war lifted energy prices and raised concerns about damage to the global economy. Metals declined broadly after Iran and Israel exchanged strikes on energy facilities, including Iran’s targeting of the world’s biggest LNG plant Ras Laffan in Qatar, and Israel’s strike on South Pars. The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, in an 8-1, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a rate hike; it cited uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, and said it would raise rates if its price outlook were realised. At his post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately with some weakness, while the Middle East war, oil prices and FX require close monitoring; he said higher oil prices may lift inflation, trend CPI is harder to read, and the BoJ will reassess its price outlook in April. He repeated that rates will rise if forecasts are met. The JPY was choppy during the presser, initially firming on comments that the pre-war economy showed solid activity and that FX effects on prices were being watched, before reversing lower. Later remarks that a slight majority of board members saw higher inflation pressure from the Middle East conflict, that policy could respond to sufficiently large risks, and that wage momentum at smaller firms may be improving helped lift the JPY, with USD/JPY falling to 159.25. Meanwhile, the UK economy added 84k jobs in January (exp. -4K), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2% (exp. 5.3%); average earnings (inc-bonus) cooled to 3.9% 3Mo/Yr (exp. 3.9%, prev. 4.2%), while the ex-bonus measure cooled to 3.8% 3Mo/Yr (exp. 4.0%, prev. 4.2%). The timelier HMRC payrolls change for February printed 20K (exp. 5K, prev. -11K). The UK stats agency said conditions were little changed at the start of the year, while regular wage growth slowed to its weakest in more than five years, is continued to ease in both the private and public sectors. Analysts noted that softer wage components would be welcomed by policymakers at Threadneedle Street, adding overall the data has a modest dovish skew, though UK assets were little changed on the release.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Micron (MU) shares fell over 3% in extended US trading, despite beating in Q2, as it flagged higher capex plans. Logitech (LOGN SW) approved a new three-year share buyback programme for up to USD 1.4bln. In consumer sectors, Unilever (ULVR LN) and Kraft Heinz (KHC) recently held talks on merging Unilever’s food business with Kraft Heinz’s condiments division, the FT reported, but discussions have since ended. In healthcare, AstraZeneca (AZN LN) will build a cell therapy manufacturing and supply base and an innovation centre in Shanghai, with the investment forming part of its USD 15bln China plan through 2030 to expand manufacturing and R&D. The Lancet Psychiatry reported semaglutide, used in Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOB DC) Ozempic and Wegovy, was linked to 44% lower risk of worsening depression, 38% lower anxiety risk and 47% lower addiction risk in almost 95,000 Swedish patients. Also of note for weight-loss drugs, Bloomberg cited a study which said placebo-arm dropouts are disrupting trials of new weight-loss drugs because patients who fail to lose weight can infer they received placebo despite blinding. In financials, HSBC (HSBA LN) is weighing job cuts that could affect about 20k roles (around 10% of its workforce), over 3-5 years; non-client-facing roles in global service centres are expected to be most affected. IG Group (IGG LN) reported record 2025 revenue of GBP 1.12bln (vs 1.05bln Y/Y), EBITDA +1% to GBP 531.1mln, adj. EPS +5%; active customers rose to 742,100, supported by its Freetrade acquisition; announced a GBP 125mln buyback, and launched a strategic review with outcomes due in the Autumn. In real estate, Vonovia (VNA GY) returned to profit in 2025 after three straight years of losses, reporting profits of EUR 4.19bln (vs EUR 962.3mln loss Y/Y); it maintained FY26 guidance, and its 2028 outlook, while CEO said higher financing expenses remain a headwind. In materials, the UK will raise tariffs on steel imports and cut import quotas to support its domestic steel industry amid global competition; from July, steel import quotas will be reduced by 60% from current arrangements, while tariffs on imports outside the quota will rise to 50% (from 25%). Lanxess (LSX GY) reported FY25 revenue of EUR 5.67bln (exp. 5.72bln); it said it does not expect improvement before H2 2026, launched cost cuts targeting EUR 100mln annual savings by end-2028, and plans to cut 550 jobs. In energy, BP (BP/ LN) will sell its Gelsenkirchen refinery site to Klesch Group, and it raised its structural cost-reduction target to USD 6.5-7.5bln by 2027; the sale forms part of BP’s USD 20bln divestment plan, and is expected to save about USD 1bln in underlying operating expenditure linked to Gelsenkirchen. Equinor (EQNR NO) is creating two new business areas to replace Marketing, Midstream and Processing; one will cover midstream, processing and infrastructure, while the other will focus on driving and accelerating the company’s market orientation. In notable broker updates, Bernstein initiated Sanofi (SAN FP) with an Outperform rating, and initiated Novartis (NOVN SW) with a Market Perform rating; Coloplast (COLOB DC) was downgraded at Nordea; Neste (NESTE FH) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Policy announcements from the ECB, BoE, SNB, Riksbank will dominate the European morning (previews below), while the Czech National Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% for a seventh meeting; inflation below target is seen cushioning the immediate impact of higher oil costs, after the Iran war shifted market expectations away from potential rate cuts. Elsewhere in Europe, Q4 labour costs and wages data will be published, as well as January’s construction output figures. Stateside, weekly initial jobless claims for the 14th March week (which coincides with the traditional survey window for the BLS March labour market report) are expected at 215k from 213k prior; continuing claims are seen remaining around 1.85mln. The Philly Fed will release its manufacturing gauge for March. Elsewhere, US new home sales for January and building permit revisions are due. The Conference Board’s leading indices will also be out. The Atlanta Fed will update its GDP tracking estimate for Q1 after today’s data, which is currently modelling growth of 2.7%. Japan PM Takaichi will meet US President Trump in Washington, as Japan seeks support on Strait of Hormuz security and regional issues; Trump may press for support in Iran-related operations, while Japan weighs assistance within its constitutional limits, missile co-development, joining Golden Dome, and a new investment tranche from its USD 550bln US commitment. Speakers due today include post-meeting statements from SNB’s Schlegel, Riksbank’s Thedeen, and ECB President Lagarde. On the supply front, France will sell EUR 10.5-12.5bln of 2029, 2030, 2031 and 2033 debt, and EUR 1.0-1.5bln of 2029, 2031, 2036 and 2053 linkers; the US Treasury will auction USD 19bln of 10yr TIPS. Notable corporate earnings due today include: Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Darden (DRI), Signet (SIG).
• PREVIEW - ECB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (13:15GMT/09:15EDT): The ECB is expected to keep the Deposit Rate at 2.00%. Focus will be on its response to the Middle East energy shock, with projections likely to show higher near- and medium-term inflation and weaker growth. President Lagarde is expected to stress optionality and readiness to act.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s ECB preview
• PREVIEW - BOE POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (12:00GMT/08:00EDT): The BoE is expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%. Focus is on how the MPC assesses the Middle East energy shock and its policy implications. Dovish dissent from Dhingra and/or Taylor is possible, though policymakers are likely to keep optionality open.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s BoE preview
• PREVIEW - SNB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (08:30GMT/04:30EDT): The SNB is expected to keep the policy rate at 0.00%, with focus on its response to the Middle East energy shock and FX policy. Markets price a 26% chance of a March cut and about a 33% chance of a hike by end-2026. The press conference starts at 09:00GMT.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s SNB preview
• PREVIEW - RIKSBANK POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (08:30GMT/04:30EDT): The Riksbank is expected to keep the policy rate at 1.75%. Focus is on the MPR after softer inflation data and the Middle East energy shock. SEB expects policymakers to remove any chance of a 2026 hike and lower the 2027 rate path. A press conference is scheduled for 10:00GMT.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s Riksbank preview
• RECAP - FOMC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT - The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% and left guidance unchanged, with only Miran dissenting for a 25bps cut. The statement was little changed, though it added uncertainty around Middle East developments. The SEP was hawkish at the margin: growth forecasts were revised higher, inflation projections were lifted, the labour-market view softened only slightly, and the longer-run fed funds rate edged up. Median dots were unchanged through 2028, but Powell’s press conference leaned more hawkish than the dots implied. He focused on inflation persistence, especially sticky non-housing services, and made clear cuts require renewed disinflation progress. He also flagged upside inflation risks from tariffs, oil and the Middle East, while noting a hike was discussed but was not the base case for the vast majority of participants. Powell indicated that policy remains restrictive enough, easing is not imminent, and the bar for cuts stays evidence-based. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the statement and Powell’s repeated “wait and see” remarks were “a bit hawkish.” The bank has expected three dissenters (Miran, Waller, Bowman), but the bank still expects two 25bps rate reductions, in September and December, taking rates to 3.00-3.25% by year-end.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s full FOMC wrap