EUROPEAN OPEN: ULVR LN confirms foods offer, explores MKC all-stock tie-up; NOVN SW agrees USD 3bln Synnovation deal; FDX rises after beat and raise; BP/ LN sees no Whiting impact, open to union talks; RIO LN shuts Amrun and Andoom mines after cyclone

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened in the green; futures of the narrow Euro Stoxx 50 are on course for a third straight week of downside, while futures of the broader Stoxx 600 are on course for losses after modest gains last week. Overnight, APAC stocks were mostly subdued, but with downside limited as the region reacted to the recent oil swings, central bank announcements, and geopolitical headlines; conditions were thinned with the absence of Japanese participants due to the Vernal Equinox holiday. Oil fell from its highest close since July 2022, with Brent around USD 108/bbl and WTI beneath USD 95/bbl, after the US and Israel sought to calm market concerns over the Iran war; President Trump said the US was not deploying ground troops, while Israel PM Netanyahu said Israel would stop attacking Iranian energy facilities. Copper and aluminium rose after Thursday’s sharp declines. Gold was set for its biggest weekly loss in six years, down almost 7% this week to about USD 4,685 an ounce, as the Middle East war lifted energy prices and reduced expectations for rate cuts, with higher crude, natgas and fuel prices raising inflation concerns. Elsewhere, today is quadruple witching, where analysts say around USD 5.7tln of US stock, index and ETF options will expire, the largest March event on record, and escalating Middle East tensions could intensify the volatility. Citi and Goldman Sachs have noted elevated correlations, heavy short positioning, and two-way risks of further declines or a short-covering rebound.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In consumer sectors, Unilever (ULVR LN) confirmed an offer for its foods unit and talks with McCormick (MKC) on a potential all-stock combination; analysts said it would leave its focus on beauty, personal care and home; a deal could come within weeks. In healthcare, Novartis (NOVN SW) agreed to acquire an experimental breast cancer drug from Synnovation Therapeutics for up to USD 3bln, including USD 2bln upfront and up to USD 1bln in milestone payments. Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) said the US FDA approved a higher dose of Wegovy for weight loss and long-term weight maintenance in certain adult patients. England’s drug price regulator must reconsider its decision not to recommend Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Alzheimer’s drug donanemab for NHS use after Lilly won an appeal. In Industrials, FedEx (FDX) shares rose over 10% in extended trading after it beat expectations on earnings and revenue, raised FY guidance. Smiths Group (SMIN LN) FY25 revenue and operating profit were slightly above expectations; has lowered its FY26 organic revenue growth view to between 3-4% (prev. saw 4-6%). In energy, BP (BP/ LN) said it does not foresee impacts on Whiting refinery operations or production, and remains willing to engage in good-faith talks with union representatives on sustainable agreements. In materials, Rio Tinto (RIO LN) temporarily shut its Amrun and Andoom bauxite mines in Northern Queensland as tropical cyclone Narelle hit northeast Australia, affecting operations that produce about 30mln tons annually. In financials, Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) has appointed Fabrizio Campelli as President. Standard Chartered (STAN LN) and BSI Bank failed in Singapore High Court bids to join 1MDB-linked winding-up applications, after the judge ruled they did not qualify as contingent creditors. In notable broker updates, Bunzl (BNZL LN) downgraded at Barclays; Lufthansa (LHA GY) downgraded at Goldman Sachs; OMV (OMV AV) downgraded at Jefferies. Galderma (GALD SW) was initiated with an Outperform at Oddo Securities; ADP (ADP FP) was upgraded at UBS; Kering (KER FP) was upgraded at Avior Capital Markets; Neste (NESTE FH) was upgraded at OP Corporate Bank.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: Eurozone current account and balance of trade data for January are due. From the UK, CBI industrial trends orders for March. The North American day sees the release of Canadian PPI for February (seen rising +1.1% M/M from +2.7%), and retail sales for January (expected at +1.0% M/M from a prior 0.0%). On the speakers’ slate, Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove) will speak on Fox at 08:00EDT/12:00GMT, and Fed’s Waller (voter, dove) will speak on CNBC at 08:30EDT/12:30GMT. ECB’s Nagel (Hawk) is also due. In energy, Baker Hughes will release weekly rig count stats. On today’s CRA slate, Scope will review Greece (BBB) and France (AA-); DBRS to review France (AA); Moody’s will review the EU (AAA) and the ESM (Aa1). Notable corporate earnings reports due today include: Xpeng (XPEV). Elsewhere, today is quadruple witching, where analysts say around USD 5.7tln of US stock, index and ETF options will expire, the largest March event on record, and escalating Middle East tensions could intensify the volatility. Citi and Goldman Sachs have noted elevated correlations, heavy short positioning, and two-way risks of further declines or a short-covering rebound.