EUROPEAN OPEN: VOW3 GY FY operating profit misses; RNO FP announces new strategic plan; BOSS GY sales/guidance tops expectations; Mongolia seeks to renegotiate RIO LN loan; Aramco net income beats, announces buyback and boosts dividend

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened on the front foot; APAC equities rebounded, led by tech shares, and crude prices fell, after President Trump signalled the Iran war may be nearing an end. Brent tumbled after Monday’s significant upside, falling as much as 10% before paring , currently trading around USD 91/bbl, as Trump also signalled he would waive oil-related sanctions, and have the US Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; the US told G7 partners that any Russia sanctions relief would be temporary, and follows the administration granting India a waiver to buy Russian oil held at sea. China’s onshore yuan rose after the PBoC strengthened the daily reference rate by the most since January 2025, after touching a one-month low in the previous session. Elsewhere, China’s Jan-Feb trade surplus reached USD 213.62bln (exp. USD 179.6bln, prev. USD 114.10bln), with imports +19.8% Y/Y and exports +19.2% Y/Y, while crude imports rose +16% Y/Y to 96.93mln tons. Gold rose trades around USD 5,180/oz, reversing the previous session’s decline, while the Dollar Index is lower, extending Monday’s decline. Bitcoin rose to USD 70k for the first time in four days. Aluminium extended losses from a four-year high after Trump’s remarks. In data, BRC said retail sales rose 1.1% Y/Y (prev. +2.7%), and online non-food sales fell 1.3%. Barclays said UK consumer spending rose 1.1% Y/Y in February (prev. 0.8% in January), while confidence in the UK, European and global economy fell; about four in five consumers were concerned about higher fuel prices, energy bills and inflation from the Middle East conflict. Elsewhere, BRC reported retail sales +0.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.3%).
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, TSMC (TSM) said January and February revenue rose +30% Y/Y to TWD 718.9bln, supported by AI infrastructure demand before conflict in the Middle East (analysts expect Q1 growth of 33%); February sales increased 22%, with growth affected by Lunar New Year holidays. Nvidia (NVDA) is preparing an open-source AI agent platform, NemoClaw, for enterprise software companies ahead of its developer conference, discussing partnerships with Salesforce (CRM), Cisco (CSCO), Google (GOOG), Adobe (ADBE) and CrowdStrike (CRWD). Apple (AAPL) increased iPhone production in India about 53% Y/Y to 55mln units in 2025, about 25% of global output; elsewhere, DigiTimes said Siri AI overhaul delays are pushing back planned smart home devices. Qualcomm (QCOM) announced new products and collaborations that deepen its push into physical AI, positioning the company in humanoid and general-purpose robotics. Microsoft (MSFT) Strategy EVP Kathleen Hogan sold 12.3K shares on 6th March, for a total USD 5.05mln. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares rose 1.4% in extended trading after it lifted its outlook for networking revenue and reported a surge in enterprise AI server orders driven by rising AI-driven demand for connectivity. In consumer sectors, Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) reported FY25 operating result EUR 8.9bln (exp. 9.55bln, prev. 19.1bln Y/Y), revenue EUR 321.9bln (exp. 324.65bln, prev. 324.7bln Y/Y), and operating margin 2.8%, with vehicle sales flat at 9mln units; It said decline in operating result was due to US tariffs, Porsche expenses, currency and price/mix effects. VW proposed a EUR 5.26 dividend (-17% Y/Y). Ahead of an investor day, Renault (RNO FP) said 16 of the 22 vehicles it plans to introduce in Europe by 2030 will be fully electric; the automaker also plans to launch 14 new vehicles outside Europe, where it is seeking more growth, as consumers face higher fuel prices. Hugo Boss (BOSS GY) reported FY25 revenue EUR 4.27bln (exp. 4.2bln), EBIT EUR 391mln (exp. 379mln); sees FY26 sales of EUR 4.27bln, with EBIT between EUR 300-350mln; it announced a share buyback of up to EUR 200mln by year-end 2027, and proposed a EUR 0.04 dividend. Lindt (LISN SW) reported FY 2025 EBIT of CHF 971mln (exp. 968.9mln), as it passed higher cocoa costs to customers; organic sales +12.4%, EBIT margin +20bps to 16.4%; announced a CHF 1bln share buyback; sees FY26 organic sales growth of +4-6%. In energy, Saudi Aramco reported 2025 adj. net income above estimates, and announced a USD 3bln share buyback, its first since listing, and raised its dividend payout; it noted lower average crude oil and refined product prices offset higher sales volumes across crude oil, gas and refined products, adding that it is navigating an evolving energy market backdrop. In industrials, Airbus (AIR FP) February deliveries were 35, gross orders 28; in the Jan-Feb period, deliveries were 54, it booked 77 gross aircraft orders, and 77 net aircraft orders. In materials, Mongolia’s government is seeking to renegotiate a loan from Rio Tinto (RIO LN) used to fund its share of developing the Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold mine; the government seeks a lower interest rate, and a lower annual mine-management fee. In financials, of note for UK banks, finance-sector workers may benefit from the Employment Rights Act as the Labour government plans to remove the cap on unfair dismissal claims on 1st January (currently limited to around GBP 118k). In healthcare, Evotec (EVT GY) prelim FY25 group revenue EUR 788mln (exp. 788mln), adj. EBITDA of EUR 41mln (exp. 30mln); sees FY26 revenue between EUR 700mln-780mln (exp. 828mln), and adj. EBITDA between EUR 0-40mln; announced its Horizon transformation plan, and sees run-rate savings of about EUR 75mln by end-2027. In notable broker updates, Santander upgrades Shell (SHEL LN), BP (BP/ LN) and Equinor (EQNR NO), while OMV (OMV AV) was downgraded; Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) was downgraded at TD Cowen; Volvo AB (VOLVB SS) was initiated with Buy rating at SpareBank; Kone (KNEBV FH) was upgraded at DNB Markets; Centrica (CNA LN) was upgraded at Citi; Hermes (RMS FP) upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: G7 energy ministers are due to meet at 08:45EDT/12:45GMT. In Europe, Italian PPI for January and the Riksbank’s Business Survey for March are due. The US Day sees the release of February’s NFIB Business Optimism Index (expected at 99.7 from 99.3), ADP’s weekly employment data (previously, the four-week average stood at 12.75k/week), February’s existing home sales (expected at 3.9mln from 3.91mln). In energy, the EIA will publish its STEO report, and afterhours, the API will report weekly energy inventory data. On the supply front, Germany will sell EUR 5bln of Schatz; US will sell USD 58bln of 3yr notes. Notable corporate earnings today include: Oracle (ORCL), NIO (NIO), Kohl’s (KSS).