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Fed Chair Powell says he does not think the different views on the FOMC makes his job more difficult, it is good to have a range of views.

Importance
Level 1

Current Policy/Middle East

  • There are tensions between the objectives of the Fed (with reference to the dual mandate).
  • Risks to both sides of the mandate.
  • Uncertainty on the outlook, as such, the dissenting/differing views are useful. At this point, the fact that there is no unanimity makes sense.
  • Will get inflation back to target on a sustained basis.
  • Policy is in a good place to wait and see how the situation plays out.
  • Tendency to look through supply shocks, but, the Fed must be attentive to inflation expectations. Monitoring this carefully. Inflation expectations appear to be well anchored.
  • Fed is not yet facing the question of what to do.
  • Do not yet know what the economic effects of the current situation will turn out to be.

Tariffs

  • Tariff inflation is likely a one-time increase, adding 0.5-1.0% to inflation.

Balance Sheet

  • Research tends to find that purchasing long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, a view Powell shares.
  • Have not really seen the downside risks to a large balance sheet that many had predicted. No sign that historic bond buying was inflationary.

Financial System

  • The Fed has significantly hardened the system against losses of the type seen during the 2008 crisis.
  • Should not attempt to regulate risk out of existence. Should always be vigilant.
  • Never experienced a major financial cyber attack.
  • The financial system is resilient.

Private Credit

  • Private credit is a relatively small part of a large asset pool. Watching it carefully.
  • Looking for things that could lead to contagion or significant losses.

Jobs

  • When asked, he said in his advice to the students at Harvard, saying it is a time of very low job creation.
  • Challenging time to enter the labour market, and may take some patience.

Outlook

  • Very optimistic about the medium and long-term.
  • Longer-term economic outlook will provide good opportunities.

AI

  • AI is boosting productivity.
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