Fed Chair Warsh says "if we get policy right, and we will, inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past'

Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.
Household consumption growth is moderate; manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year.
Housing sector continues to lag.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, showing resilience in the face of recent developments.
Don’t know the extent to which the economy will benefit from AI buildout.
Most striking feature of the economy right now is business investment, which appears to be accelerating and reflects AI projects and spending.
Productivity growth has been strong, predating gains from AI adoption.
Labour market appears broadly stable.
Fed is monitoring implications for inflation and labour market.
Have a duty to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives.
Purpose of task forces is to equip Fed to make better monetary policy decisions, put years of high inflation behind them.
Job creation has kept pace with workforce; unemployment rate is low and has changed little over the past year; seeing relatively few layoffs; solid growth in nominal wages.
Balance sheet task force will probe advantages and disadvantages of ample reserves regime and explore alternatives.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 21 Oct, 10:29 UTC · what it led with

Pakistan Army Chief Munir brought the "final warning" from the United States to Iranian officials, which called on Iran to submit to the US demands for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.

The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.

Headlines that moved markets

Headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance

EUR/SEK+0.3%

Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate

EUR/NOK+0.6%

Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.

WTI crude+1.5%

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Fed Chair Warsh says "if we get policy right, and we will, inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past'

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