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Fed Governor Miran (Dove) says Fed should not be making policy based on short-term headlines; it is premature to judge the current situation

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Fed Governor Miran (Dove) says Fed should not be making policy based on short-term headlines; it is premature to judge the current situation

US President Trump says deal with Iran could be five days or sooner, Iran wants to make a deal badly, via Fox Business; not sure what Iranian media is talking about, recent Iranian talks occurred last night.

Indirect talks are taking place between US Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, Axios reports citing sources

On the Newsquawk feed at , 20 minutes before this page.

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  • Need to be looking at a year and a half, two years out, given the lag in monetary policy.
  • Historically, energy shocks impact headline inflation, not core inflation.
  • Policy outlook depends on inflation expectations.
  • Don't want to respond to oil price shocks in case it leads to a wage price spiral.
  • Labour market could benefit from additional support.
  • Many around the FOMC table, including himself, were hesitant to draw conclusions from the Iran conflict.
  • Needs more clarity on whether policy should react to current  events.
  • Expects higher headline inflation but it is to soon to say if it will impact core inflation.
  • Higher energy prices depresses demand and can offset some of the inflationary impact.
  • Fed historically looks through first-round of all price shocks, it would be unusual to focus on them this time around.
  • Second round effects and wage rises could require a rate hike. But current conditions do not warrant consider rate hikes.  
  • Is watching for broad based second round impacts from higher energy.
  • Outlook remains for rate cuts.
  • Pencilled in four rate cuts this year (vs six in December SEPs) - Note, Miran had alluded before the FOMC he sees four 25bps rate cuts this year. 
  • Expects labour market will continue with gradual softening. 
  • Balance of risks got worse on both sides. 

Context

Fed Governor Miran's comments indicate a continued dovish stance on policy, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should avoid reacting to short-term economic shocks, such as energy price spikes, which do not typically alter core inflation. His perspectives on a potential need for rate cuts this year, alongside a more cautious approach toward immediate policy adjustments, suggest that the Fed is prioritizing long-term economic stability over knee-jerk reactions, which could influence USD positioning and expectations around future rate paths.

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