Fed's Barkin (2027 Voter) says 2.8% productivity is still a pretty good number, via Bloomberg TV; are seeing companies invest in productivity

Geopols:

• The text book monetary policy response would be to look through short term shocks.
• Do not have a sense yet of the implications of the Iran war on the economy.
• Gas prices still matter for sentiment and can crowd out other consumption.
• If gas prices are up that is inflationary, and Fed will have to decide how long that lasts.

Inflation:

• Recent inflation data does raise doubts about whether the Fed is finished its inflation fight.
• Seen a couple months of relative high inflation.

Employment:

• Last couple months of employment data has been reassuring.

Policy:

• Believes that policy is modestly restrictive, but demand remains healthy.
• The Fed will go meeting-by-meeting.

Balance sheet:

• Instinctively likes the idea of a smaller Fed balance sheet, but subject to not having adverse market reactions and being able to control interest rates.