Fed’s Daly (2027 Voter, Dove) says if Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, then a rate cut is ‘not out of the question’

Inflation:

• If inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done.
• We had work to do on inflation before the oil price shock; now, the work just takes longer.
• Persistently high oil prices would mean higher inflation but would also hurt growth.
• We're already forecasting higher prices show through to the economy with people pulling back on travel because they are worried about higher costs.
• Extremely important to bring inflation to 2%, but doing that at the expense of jobs puts families behind the eight Ball. 
• Need to see what happens with the conflict and how businesses are passing along price increases.
• Forecasting surcharges, which can be reversed, rather than price increases.

Rates:

• Puts a lower probability on a rate hike than on a cut or holding steady.
• Policy is restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation, balanced enough to support a steady labor market.
• Policy in a good place gives US more time to see how conflict resolves and what happens to oil prices.

Labour Market:

• US economic fundamentals 'solid,' labor market in a steadier place.
• Risks to Fed's goals of full employment, inflation are balanced.