Fed's Daly (2027 voter) says no one month of data is decisional; both of goals are risks now; jobs market is vulnerable; jobs numbers are not a clear read, but also not a wrong read

JOBS REPORT

• She hoped last year's rate cuts would put a floor under the job market, "but this report has my attention".
• Should not look through the report.
• No one month of data is decisional.
• Both sides of dual mandate are at risk now.
• Jobs market is vulnerable.
• Jobs numbers are not a clear read, but also not a wrong read.

JOBS MARKET

• Jobs market has her attention.
• Wages need to be inflation plus productivity growth.
• If breakeven is 30k, we are below that, but its only a couple months of data.
• Labour market does give her concern, but cite things like strikes and snow conditions.

ENERGY:

• Suggests that the outlook really depends on how long oil prices remain elevated.
• Fed doesn't want to act aggressively unless we know that part.

PRODUCTIVITY:

• Can see productivity growth everywhere except in the data.

PATH AHEAD:

• Another policy alternative is to hold rates steady, and not in a position to think they should hike.
• Have to be steady in the boat while we collect more information.