Fed's Daly (2027 voter) says no one month of data is decisional; both of goals are risks now; jobs market is vulnerable; jobs numbers are not a clear read, but also not a wrong read

• She hoped last year's rate cuts would put a floor under the job market, "but this report has my attention".
• Should not look through the report.
• No one month of data is decisional.
• Both sides of dual mandate are at risk now.
• Jobs market is vulnerable.
• Jobs numbers are not a clear read, but also not a wrong read.

• Jobs market has her attention.
• Wages need to be inflation plus productivity growth.
• If breakeven is 30k, we are below that, but its only a couple months of data.
• Labour market does give her concern, but cite things like strikes and snow conditions.

• Suggests that the outlook really depends on how long oil prices remain elevated.
• Fed doesn't want to act aggressively unless we know that part.

• Can see productivity growth everywhere except in the data.

• Another policy alternative is to hold rates steady, and not in a position to think they should hike.
• Have to be steady in the boat while we collect more information.

Fed's Daly emphasized the need for caution in interpreting recent job data, noting that no single report should dictate policy. She highlighted vulnerabilities in the job market and indicated that both inflation and employment targets pose risks. This suggests a potentially dovish stance as the Fed remains data-dependent, emphasizing stability in rates while awaiting further clarity on economic conditions.