Fed's Goolsbee (2027 Voter) says jobs report was a tough miss, via Bloomberg TV; but one report is not a trend
Speaking on the NFP report on March 6:
- Jobs report was a tough miss, but one report is not a trend.
- If you got several months like that, it would be a concern.
Jobs:
- Reason we are seeing low-hiring, low-firing, is uncertainty.
Inflation:
- Remains hopeful we will see progress on inflation.
- Non-tariff inflation has been disturbingly high.
- Disturbing persistance of services inflation.
Growth:
- A strong consumer has been driving US growth.
Energy prices:
- Questions whether inflation rates will be transitory.
- Oil shock can lead in stagflationary direction; stagflation is a worst-case scenario for central banks.
Policy:
- Hopeful we can commence rate cuts by end of this year.
- Wants to get as much information as possible, especially given recent conflicting data.
- Everything is on the table at every meeting.
Context
Fed's Goolsbee describes the recent jobs report as a significant miss but emphasizes that one report does not define a trend. He expresses concerns about ongoing inflation, particularly in services, while remaining optimistic about potential rate cuts by year-end if data supports such a move. This suggests a cautious yet flexible approach from the Fed as it navigates mixed signals in the economy, indicating both uncertainty and a potential shift in policy direction depending on upcoming information.
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