Fed's Logan (2026 voter) says she supported the Fed holding steady at the recent FOMC meeting, the labour market stabilised in H2'25 and into 2026

Policy:

• Policy is positioned to respond to data and Fed is prepared to make adjustments as needed.
• It was quite challenging to do the most recent round of Fed forecasts.

Iran Conflict and Energy:

• Iran war has increased the level of uncertainty and has increased risks on both sides of the mandate.
• Key question is if the war disruptions induce investment in US energy production.
• Energy producers appear to need extend higher prices to boost production.
• So far not seeing a dramatic increase in US energy production so far.
• A swift resolution of the war may mean economic impact might be pretty moderate.
• The US has some buffers to impacts from the war.

Job market:

• Payroll gains have been pretty weak and feels uncomfortable.
• Immigration has changed job market breakeven to close to zero.

Economy and Inflation:

• Was not convinced inflation was easing enough even before the war started.
• Business investment is strong and consumers have been resilient.
• Incredibly important to get inflation back to 2%.
• AI productivity gains are still ahead of the economy.

Private Credit:

• Have seen some weakness and vulnerability in private credit.
• Private credit risks are a contained set of vulnerabilities.
• Private credit structures limit the ability to create larger problems.
• Private credit merits strong monitoring given a lack of transparency.