Fed's Miran (voter) says there is no evidence of a wage price spiral, speaking to CNBC; such an outcome appears extremely unlikely. Inflation expectations have not been affected yet by elevated oil prices.

Energy/Middle East

• The Fed traditionally looks through oil shocks. Other members of the Fed are moving their position based on oil prices.
• Markets are often volatile during war. This is not a concern.
• Inflation is expected to return to target in around one year.
• Higher oil prices could accelerate cooling within the labor market.
• Would love to hear Chair Powell confirm that the traditional view to the situation applies, i.e. that the Fed can look through oil shocks.

Balance Sheet/Bonds

• Fed's balance sheet is too big and would like to shrink it.
• Does not read too much from the excess bond volatility.

Financial Conditions/Policy

• There has been an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.
• Tighter financial conditions could have an effect on economic growth.
• Policy remains restrictive.
• Want 100bps of rate cuts in 2026 (reiteration)

Private Credit

• Miran says, "private credit concerns are not at a level that would change my view, but it is a risk I'm aware of".

Fed Position

• Will stay until after Warsh is confirmed, will probably get another Fed meeting.