Fed's Waller (voter, dove) says going to see a spike in gasoline prices, but for them it is unlikely to cause sustained inflation, via Bloomberg TV
Importance
Level 1
Middle East:
- Not going to be a big factor down the road [Middle East conflict], and is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.
- Thinking about policy, this is something we're going to have to put off for now.
- These energy costs are likely to be passed along like everything else.
Labour Market:
- Reiterates that he has been concerned about the weak labour market since last June.
- Looked like in January might be turning a corner [in the labour market], but will find out today whether it was a signal or not.
- Labour market is fragile and wouldn't take too much to cause a shock.
- January labour market numbers concentrated to a couple of sectors, and that did not give him a lot of comfort.
- The data [Jan jobs] was saying it was good, but his gut was saying things might not still be good.
- There has been a pattern in January over the last couple of years.
- Reiterates if there is strength in the labour market, he would be willing to pare back his rate cut bets.
- More concerned about the labour market, than inflation, while other colleagues on the committee are more worried about inflation.
Data:
- Reiterates are going to get a hot PCE number (out next week).
- ADP was promising.
- If get a bad jobs number today, and Jan revised down, why would they just sit on their hands?
- If get a solid jobs number, would say Fed can sit and wait.
- Good labour market would be something similar to January's number.
Tariffs:
- Tariff risk to the downside, and doesn't see a lot of tariff risks.
Private Credit:
- Doesn't see big or widespread problems in the private credit market.
- Headlines they've seen do not seem to be systemic.
- Will have things popping up, but the whole private credit market does not appear to be under stress.
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