Fed's Waller (voter, dove) says going to see a spike in gasoline prices, but for them it is unlikely to cause sustained inflation, via Bloomberg TV

Middle East:

• Not going to be a big factor down the road [Middle East conflict], and is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.
• Thinking about policy, this is something we're going to have to put off for now.
• These energy costs are likely to be passed along like everything else.

Labour Market:

• Reiterates that he has been concerned about the weak labour market since last June.
• Looked like in January might be turning a corner [in the labour market], but will find out today whether it was a signal or not.
• Labour market is fragile and wouldn't take too much to cause a shock.
• January labour market numbers concentrated to a couple of sectors, and that did not give him a lot of comfort.
• The data [Jan jobs] was saying it was good, but his gut was saying things might not still be good.
• There has been a pattern in January over the last couple of years.
• Reiterates if there is strength in the labour market, he would be willing to pare back his rate cut bets.
• More concerned about the labour market, than inflation, while other colleagues on the committee are more worried about inflation.

Data:

• Reiterates are going to get a hot PCE number (out next week).
• ADP was promising.
• If get a bad jobs number today, and Jan revised down, why would they just sit on their hands?
• If get a solid jobs number, would say Fed can sit and wait.
• Good labour market would be something similar to January's number.

Tariffs:

• Tariff risk to the downside, and doesn't see a lot of tariff risks.

Private Credit:

• Doesn't see big or widespread problems in the private credit market.
• Headlines they've seen do not seem to be systemic.
• Will have things popping up, but the whole private credit market does not appear to be under stress.