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Fed's Waller (voter, dove) says going to see a spike in gasoline prices, but for them it is unlikely to cause sustained inflation, via Bloomberg TV

Importance
Level 1

Middle East:

  • Not going to be a big factor down the road [Middle East conflict], and is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.
  • Thinking about policy, this is something we're going to have to put off for now.
  • These energy costs are likely to be passed along like everything else.

Labour Market:

  • Reiterates that he has been concerned about the weak labour market since last June.
  • Looked like in January might be turning a corner [in the labour market], but will find out today whether it was a signal or not.
  • Labour market is fragile and wouldn't take too much to cause a shock.
  • January labour market numbers concentrated to a couple of sectors, and that did not give him a lot of comfort.
  • The data [Jan jobs] was saying it was good, but his gut was saying things might not still be good.
  • There has been a pattern in January over the last couple of years.
  • Reiterates if there is strength in the labour market, he would be willing to pare back his rate cut bets.
  • More concerned about the labour market, than inflation, while other colleagues on the committee are more worried about inflation.

Data:

  • Reiterates are going to get a hot PCE number (out next week).
  • ADP was promising.
  • If get a bad jobs number today, and Jan revised down, why would they just sit on their hands?
  • If get a solid jobs number, would say Fed can sit and wait.
  • Good labour market would be something similar to January's number.

Tariffs:

  • Tariff risk to the downside, and doesn't see a lot of tariff risks.

Private Credit:

  • Doesn't see big or widespread problems in the private credit market.
  • Headlines they've seen do not seem to be systemic.
  • Will have things popping up, but the whole private credit market does not appear to be under stress.
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