Fed's Waller (voter, dove) says going to see a spike in gasoline prices, but for them it is unlikely to cause sustained inflation, via Bloomberg TV
Newsquawk Staff ·
Middle East
- Not going to be a big factor down the road [Middle East conflict], and is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.
- Thinking about policy, this is something we're going to have to put off for now.
- These energy costs are likely to be passed along like everything else.
Labour Market
- Reiterates that he has been concerned about the weak labour market since last June.
- Looked like in January might be turning a corner [in the labour market], but will find out today whether it was a signal or not.
- Labour market is fragile and wouldn't take too much to cause a shock.
- January labour market numbers concentrated to a couple of sectors, and that did not give him a lot of comfort.
- The data [Jan jobs] was saying it was good, but his gut was saying things might not still be good.
- There has been a pattern in January over the last couple of years.
- Reiterates if there is strength in the labour market, he would be willing to pare back his rate cut bets.
- More concerned about the labour market, than inflation, while other colleagues on the committee are more worried about inflation.
Data
- Reiterates are going to get a hot PCE number (out next week).
- ADP was promising.
- If get a bad jobs number today, and Jan revised down, why would they just sit on their hands?
- If get a solid jobs number, would say Fed can sit and wait.
- Good labour market would be something similar to January's number.
Tariffs
- Tariff risk to the downside, and doesn't see a lot of tariff risks.
Private Credit
- Doesn't see big or widespread problems in the private credit market.
- Headlines they've seen do not seem to be systemic.
- Will have things popping up, but the whole private credit market does not appear to be under stress.
What it means
Fed's Waller's commentary suggests that while he anticipates rising gasoline prices, he doesn't expect them to spark sustained inflation, which indicates a more measured stance on future monetary policy. His focus on the fragile labor market, rather than inflation, may imply that the path for rate adjustments could hinge more on labor data than previously thought, especially in light of upcoming job figures that could either bolster or shake confidence in the Fed's current approach.
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