Fed’s Williams (voter) says now is not a good time for Fed to give firm forward guidance; Fed policy is currently modestly restrictive

Inflation:

• Well-anchored inflation expectations important.
• Inflation will be “well above” 3% over next few months.

Monetary Policy:

• We are in the right place for monetary policy.

Middle East:

• War shock is about prices but also unavailable commodities.
• The longer the conflict lasts, the bigger the economic impact will be.
• Some of market strength due to reduced US exposure to oil shock.
• Market pricing balancing strong US outlook versus war uncertainty.

Other:

• Cyber risk is the thing that keeps me up at night