Fed's Williams (voter) says uncertainty around inflation path is 'high'
- Tariffs and Iran war will push up headline inflation.
- Expects the unemployment rate to edge down this year and next.
- Economy facing ‘unusual set of circumstances’.
- Expects higher headline inflation near term on war and tariffs.
- War could both push up inflation, and depress growth.
- Inflation expectations consistent with 2% inflation.
- Expects US GDP to be 2.5% this year amid help from various factors.
- Expects inflation to end this year at 2.75%, and back to 2% in 2027.
- Economy has been resilient among changes.
- No signs of second round inflation impact from tariffs.
- Low hiring rate might be boosting economic pessimism.
- Job market sending out mixed signals.
Context
Fed's Williams highlights significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, primarily driven by geopolitical factors and tariffs. His expectation of higher near-term inflation juxtaposed with growth concerns suggests a complex economic environment that could influence future rate decisions. The narrative reinforces a cautious stance while hinting at resilience in certain economic indicators, which markets will interpret for implications on policy direction going forward.
Trade the TapeGet this analysis live, the moment it breaksNewsquawk's real-time dashboard delivers market-moving headlines and instant context to your desk before the rest of the market reacts.
Open Dashboard#UNITED STATES#USD#JAPAN#UNITED KINGDOM#IMPORTANT#FOREX#FIXED INCOME#US SESSION#FEDERAL RESERVE#CENTRAL BANK#INFLATION#DXY