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Fed's Williams (voter) says uncertainty around inflation path is 'high'

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  • Tariffs and Iran war will push up headline inflation.
  • Expects the unemployment rate to edge down this year and next.
  • Economy facing ‘unusual set of circumstances’.
  • Expects higher headline inflation near term on war and tariffs.
  • War could both push up inflation, and depress growth.
  • Inflation expectations consistent with 2% inflation.
  • Expects US GDP to be 2.5% this year amid help from various factors.
  • Expects inflation to end this year at 2.75%, and back to 2% in 2027.
  • Economy has been resilient among changes.
  • No signs of second round inflation impact from tariffs.
  • Low hiring rate might be boosting economic pessimism.
  • Job market sending out mixed signals.
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