FOMC STATEMENT: Rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as expected; voted 8-4 to hold rates (Miran voted for a 25bps rate reduction; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan dissented on easing bias in statement)

The FOMC has decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, aligning with market expectations.

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SNAP ANALYSIS: FOMC statement leans hawkish

FOMC STATEMENT: Rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as expected; voted 8-4 to hold rates (Miran voted for a 25bps rate reduction; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan dissented on easing bias in statement)

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RATE DECISION

  • Fed holds target range for federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%
  • Eight voted to hold rates unchanged; one (Miran) voted to cut by 25bps; three (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) voted to hold but opposed inclusion of easing bias in statement

DISSENT DETAILS

  • Miran preferred to lower target range by 25bps at this meeting
  • Hammack, Kashkari, Logan supported holding rates but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time

FORWARD GUIDANCE

  • Fed says in considering extent and timing of additional adjustments, Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks
  • Committee would be prepared to adjust stance of monetary policy if risks emerge that could impede attainment of its goals
  • Assessments will take into account labour market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments

LABOUR MARKET

  • Fed notes job gains have remained low on average; unemployment rate little changed in recent months
  • Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment

INFLATION

  • Fed says inflation is elevated, in part reflecting recent increase in global energy prices
  • Committee strongly committed to returning inflation to 2% objective

BALANCE OF RISKS

  • Fed notes Middle East developments are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook
  • Committee says it is attentive to risks to both sides of its dual mandate
Context

The 8-4 voting outcome, with dissent from Miran pushing for a cut and others opposing an easing bias, indicates some internal division at the Fed, highlighting a cautious approach amidst elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. This stance suggests a data-dependent path forward, likely keeping the market on edge regarding potential rate adjustments depending on evolving economic conditions.

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