French S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Apr) 47.6 (Prev. 48.8, Low. 48, High. 49.5); "What's most notable is that the passthrough to prices charged for goods and services remains contained"

  • "The service economy has deteriorated due to a diminishing willingness to spend – a typical consequence of uncertainty – pulling overall business activity levels lower"
  • "Preventing the headline 'flash' index from falling even further below 50.0 was the manufacturing sector, which saw a production rebound in April. However, this does not look like a turning point and will likely be temporary, as our survey respondents reported advance purchasing from customers in anticipation of price increases, shortages and logistics issues."
  • "...manufacturing inflation moved even higher in April as a range of raw material costs rose, transportation became more expensive and supply bottlenecks pushed up prices. Services companies are  also feeling the pressure from higher transportation costs."
  • "What's most notable is that the passthrough to prices charged for goods and services remains contained"
  • "Services charges have barely moved since the outbreak of the war..."
Context

The French S&P Global Composite PMI Flash reading of 47.6 indicates a continued contraction in the economy, driven predominantly by declining service sector activity as consumer spending wanes amid rising uncertainty. While manufacturing saw a temporary rebound, inflationary pressures from raw materials and logistics challenges persist, although importantly, price passthroughs for services remain contained, suggesting muted inflation expectations at this stage. This underperformance could weigh on the euro and may prompt further scrutiny of the ECB's policy stance going forward.

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