Goldman Sachs estimates an USD 18/bbl real-time risk premium in crude oil prices and sees impact moderates to + USD 4/bbl if only 50% of Strait of Hormuz flows are impacted for one month

• Sees significant upside to TTF/JKM prices from a potential sustained disruption of LNG.

Goldman Sachs highlights a geopolitical risk premium of $18 per barrel in crude oil prices, suggesting that if just 50% of the Strait of Hormuz flows are disrupted, the impact could reduce to a $4 premium over a month. This indicates heightened sensitivity in the oil market to geopolitical tensions, particularly in key shipping lanes, and could influence broader commodity pricing and inflation expectations.