Goldman Sachs says the Hormuz disruption could add USD 18/bbl of oil risk premium, and it flags natgas upside and defensive tilt
- While GS leaves its base cases for energy prices unchanged, it estimates an USD 18/bbl real-time risk premium under a six-week full Strait of Hormuz closure; this would moderate to USD 4/bbl if 50% of flows are halted for one month, allowing for spare pipeline capacity.
- Thebank flags substantial upside risk in natgas, noting that TTF and JKM had little-to-no risk premium; GS says that a one-month halt could see prices approach EUR 74/MWh, around 130% above current levels.
- Its strategists highlight energy as the key transmission channel, adding that the severity and duration of disruptions to oil flows are seen as critical for broader market impact.
Context
Goldman Sachs' assessment of potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underscores significant risks for oil prices, estimating a USD 18/bbl premium under a worst-case scenario. This indicates that supply chain concerns could drive prices higher, impacting overall market sentiment. Their emphasis on natural gas suggests traders should also be alert to upward price movements in that sector, particularly if disruptions extend, amplifying energy's role as a market driver.
Trade the TapeGet this analysis live, the moment it breaksNewsquawk's real-time dashboard delivers market-moving headlines and instant context to your desk before the rest of the market reacts.
Open Dashboard#UNITED STATES#USD#EUR#JAPAN#JPY#UNITED KINGDOM#GBP#ASIA#EUROPE#GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC/THE#FOREX#EQUITIES#ENERGY#METALS#EU SESSION#WTI#COMMODITIES#GOLD#INVESTMENT BANKING & BROKERAGE#METALS & MINING#CAPITAL MARKETS#FINANCIAL SERVICES#S&P 500 INDEX#GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC#GS#DXY#ENERGY & POWER