Goldman Sachs says the Hormuz disruption could add USD 18/bbl of oil risk premium, and it flags natgas upside and defensive tilt
Importance
Level 1
- While GS leaves its base cases for energy prices unchanged, it estimates an USD 18/bbl real-time risk premium under a six-week full Strait of Hormuz closure; this would moderate to USD 4/bbl if 50% of flows are halted for one month, allowing for spare pipeline capacity.
- Thebank flags substantial upside risk in natgas, noting that TTF and JKM had little-to-no risk premium; GS says that a one-month halt could see prices approach EUR 74/MWh, around 130% above current levels.
- Its strategists highlight energy as the key transmission channel, adding that the severity and duration of disruptions to oil flows are seen as critical for broader market impact.
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