IMF World Economy Outlook: Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; Downside risks dominate the outlook
Assumptions
- Reference scenario: 2026 global GDP growth 3.1%, oil $82
- Adverse scenario: 2026 global GDP growth 2.5%, oil $100
- Severe scenario: 2026 global GDP growth 2.0%, oil $110
Context
The IMF's World Economy Outlook indicates a forecasted slowdown in global growth, with projections of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, provided the current conflict remains limited. This outlook reflects heightened downside risks, which could impact investor sentiment and may influence central bank policy direction, especially in fixed income markets, where growth projections are critical for yield expectations.
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