Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed and maritime navigation cannot be resumed until the US meets Iran’s conditions, Al Mayadeen reports

Declarations of a full Hormuz closure have been issued rhetorically on many occasions without a sustained physical blockade ever materialising; the historical pattern is that threats of this kind function as leverage in negotiations, while actual disruption has taken the form of seizures, harassment, and mine scares rather than a formal shutdown. The sourcing matters here: the claim arrives via a regional outlet aligned with Tehran rather than through official Iranian state channels or coalition maritime authorities, and past episodes have repeatedly shown a gap between announced closure and observed tanker transits. The first tell is therefore flow data, vessel tracking, tanker fixture rates, and war-risk insurance premia in the Gulf, which have historically repriced sharply on headline risk and reverted when transit continued. Roughly a fifth of global oil and a substantial share of LNG passes the strait, and there is no pipeline bypass of equivalent capacity, so a genuine interruption would transmit through crude flat price, prompt spreads, and freight simultaneously. The conditional framing, reopening tied to US concessions, is consistent with prior negotiating postures and suggests this is a pressure signal rather than an operational order. Worth watching: statements from Gulf producers and Western navies, escort or convoy arrangements, and any move in insurance quotes, which have been the most reliable real-time gauge of whether rhetoric is becoming blockade.