JPMorgan says there is a risk of prices above USD 150/bbl if strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired into mid-May

JPMorgan's warning about potential oil prices exceeding USD 150/bbl highlights significant geopolitical risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

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JPMorgan says there is a risk of prices above USD 150/bbl if strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired into mid-May

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  • Working assumption is that strait disruption will eventually be resolved, with oil prices expected to stay elevated (higher than USD 100/bbl) in Q2 before retracing in H2 26. 
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If flows remain impaired, this could lead to sustained elevated prices in Q2, impacting inflation and economic growth forecasts, especially for energy-sensitive currencies and sectors.

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