JPMorgan says there is a risk of prices above USD 150/bbl if strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired into mid-May
- Working assumption is that strait disruption will eventually be resolved, with oil prices expected to stay elevated (higher than USD 100/bbl) in Q2 before retracing in H2 26.
Context
JPMorgan's warning about potential oil prices exceeding USD 150/bbl highlights significant geopolitical risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz. If flows remain impaired, this could lead to sustained elevated prices in Q2, impacting inflation and economic growth forecasts, especially for energy-sensitive currencies and sectors.
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