Major newswire poll shows 57% of economists expect the BoJ to hike its interest rate to 1.25% at the September meeting, while a slim majority of economists see the BoJ hiking rates to at least 1.5% in Q1 2027

Economist polls ahead of BoJ meetings have historically been a soft guide: the bank's own communication has tended to drive pricing more than consensus surveys, and past tightening steps have repeatedly arrived with less forward guidance than the economist consensus implied, leaving front-end JGBs and the yen to reprice on the statement and press conference rather than the poll. The distinction worth drawing is between the September call, which is a near-term timing question sensitive to wage and services inflation data and to any yen weakness that raises the import-price channel, and the Q1 2027 terminal path, where a slim majority signals genuine dispersion rather than conviction and carries little pricing weight this far out. The Governor's post-meeting press conference and any updated board member views have historically been the more reliable tell than polling splits. What matters next is how OIS pricing for the meeting compares with the 57% figure, since a gap between surveyed consensus and market pricing is where the repricing risk sits, and whether official commentary leans into or away from the poll. As a survey rather than a decision, the signal is directional only.