[MARKET ANALYSIS] AUD outperforms on RBA rate hike bets and calls

DXY: Flat

• Takes a breather after ultimately strengthening yesterday on what was a choppy day for the buck as oil whipsawed, and with support seen as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz look set to stay after a CBS report that US intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Elsewhere, there was little to be said as main events pertained to geopolitics and energy, while recent data releases had little impact and CPI is due later, but is largely seen as stale given recent developments.

EUR/USD: +0.1%

• Trades rangebound after it just about retained the 1.1600 status, and with little reaction seen following comments from ECB officials, who noted uncertainty regarding the Iran war and energy prices.

GBP/USD: +0.2%

• Edges higher but remains confined within the prior day's range at the 1.3400 handle amid quiet currency-specific news.

USD/JPY: +0.2%

• Extended above the 158.00 level with the Japanese currency underperforming alongside a rally in Tokyo stocks and after Japanese PPI data printed softer-than-expected with a surprise M/M deflation.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD +0.7% / NZD/USD +0.2%

• Gained with outperformance in AUD/USD as several banks joined in on forecasting for a hike at next week's RBA meeting, with the likes of NAB and Westpac anticipating hikes in both March and May, while money markets now imply a 76% likelihood of a 25bps increase at the meeting next week.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently outperforming, supported by increasing expectations for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As several major banks adjust their forecasts to anticipate potential hikes in the coming months, market participants are responding positively, with a 76% chance now priced in for a 25bp increase at next week’s RBA meeting. This sentiment could lead to further strength in AUD, especially against peers like the USD and NZD.