[MARKET ANALYSIS] BoJ Governor Ueda remains non-committal on the timing of the next hike, JPY pressured as a result

  • Modest JPY strength as Ueda began speaking, where he outlined that they would continue to lift the policy rate depending on economic activity, and as he discussed some of the ultimately-rejected statement alterations suggested by the dissenters.
  • Thereafter, upside was seen in USD/JPY, which bounced from the 159.00 handle (overnight low 158.96), as Ueda outlined that they want to take a little more time to gauge the impact of the Middle East situation.
  • In terms of the next move, Ueda said he cannot say how many months it would take to gauge the timing of the next hike, and they will be looking to underlying inflation for insight; on that, he said they are not currently aware of inflation expectations spiking in the mid- or long-term.
  • Finally, towards the end of the conference, Ueda outlined that by June there will probably not be big upward pressure visible in CPI data. A remark which was taken in a dovish light, as Ueda was possibly guiding participants away from a June move. Amidst this, USD/JPY continued to climb and was at 159.45 when the presser concluded.
Context

Governor Ueda's ambiguous stance on future interest rate hikes signals a dovish outlook for the Bank of Japan (BoJ), particularly with his remarks indicating an inability to confidently predict when the next hike might occur. This uncertainty around the path of monetary policy is pressuring the JPY, as traders react to the potential for inflation to remain subdued, resulting in a bullish trend for USD/JPY in the near term.

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