[MARKET ANALYSIS] Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting

In geopolitics, US President Trump told Fox that he sees the Iran war as “very close to being over” and said talks could resume “over the next two days”; the full interview is due to air at 11:00BST/06:00EDT. Elsewhere, it was also reported that discussions are underway regarding a possible extension of the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US. That being said, it’s worth noting that Pakistan’s leadership will be away until April 18th, which dims the prospects of a US-Iran meeting before that date, according to local journalists.
In terms of Israel-Lebanon talks, the ambassadors’ meeting in Washington yesterday was telegraphed as positive. That being said, it’s worth noting that Israel’s battle is with Hezbollah and not the Lebanese government. Although symbolic, the talks themselves may prove to be futile, whilst attacks also continue today. It remains to be seen how this will affect any potential US-Iran talks.
Crude prices were hit on Tuesday as traders weighed prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks against the near-total double blockade of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, Brent June is little changed on either side of USD 95/bbl (USD 93.93-95.79/bbl range) after Tuesday’s near-5.0% slide, while WTI June trades near USD 88.50/bbl (USD 84.70-89.20/bbl).
Gold eased into the European session and currently resides in a USD 4,804-4,871/oz range at the time of writing. Some desks view the recent move as technical, with prices bouncing off the 200 DMA in late March. Meanwhile, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth raised gold allocations as part of a broader defensive tilt against Iranian war risks.
Base metal prices are mostly but modestly firmer. London copper has now erased all losses triggered by the conflict, moving above its 27th February close as traders focused on possible peace talks. 3M LME copper resides in a tight USD 13,251.45- 13,391.60/t range.