[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks are a little lower, whilst XAU slips amidst the stronger USD

Geopolitical newsflow remains focused on the US-Iran talks, and the sometimes mixed commentary filtering out from the respective officials. As it stands, there does not appear to be any cause for concern, with President Trump and VP Vance both sounding positive about the initial talks; the Iranian side also said good progress has been made. However, looking between the lines reveals some contradictory remarks. On Monday, VP Vance said that Iran would allow the IAEA to inspect nuclear facilities. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson stated that there are no plans to let inspectors visit nuclear sites targeted in the conflict; the nuance of “sites targeted in the conflict”, potentially offers some hints to the inner workings of the proceedings between the US and Iran. Do note that the Iranian President is visiting Pakistan today.
The biggest risk to the talks is Israeli actions in Lebanon. Several high-ranking Israeli officials have suggested that Israel will continue its military operations in Lebanon. Comments which come ahead of the US-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks, which are set to begin today. A confab which spans over a couple of days, and focuses on finalising “pilot zones” within southern Lebanon and long-lasting peace.
Crude benchmarks traded sideways for much of the APAC session, before then moving to lows heading into the European cash open. Since, WTI and Brent have bounced a touch off lows, to currently trade towards the mid-point of the days range. In more detail, WTI Aug’26 (-0.5%) sits within a USD 72.48-74.45/bbl range and Brent Aug’26 (-0.6%) holds within a 76.43-78.23/bbl range.
Spot gold (-2%) extends lower amidst the continued hawkish mood in markets, which have kept the USD elevated. For gold specifically, a number of sell-side banks have cut their price forecasts for spot gold. On Monday, Goldman Sachs cut their year-end target to USD 4,900/oz (prev. USD 5,200/oz). Its model focused on the Fed, whereby every 50bps worth of easing adds c. USD 120/oz of support to spot gold. Most recently, Deutsche Bank cut its gold forecast by 22%. Today, the yellow metal holds at the bottom end of a USD 4,091 to 4,198/oz range; it may find support at a recent low of USD 4,023/oz, if the pressure continues.
Base metals follow the downbeat risk tone seen across broader markets. 3M LME copper is lower by c. 1.8% and holds within a USD 13,396.35-13,671/t range.