[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks gain amid IRGC attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning, having gradually moved higher throughout the APAC session. Action which has been facilitated by reports that Iran’s IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with one said to be a Qatari LNG tanker another reportedly Saudi-flagged. Fars clarified that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.
Despite the aforementioned attacks, ships continue to traverse through the Strait. Recent data has shown that Japanese-owned supertankers carrying Saudi crude are transiting through the Strait of Hormuz to exit the Gulf region.
As it stands, for as long as ships continue to sail through the Strait, the crude complex can remain towards recent lows. Therefore, the mild upward bias seen in the complex this morning appears to be some pricing in of some risk of a wider-escalation, but not another long-term disruption. Brent Sept’26 (+1.2%) currently holds just off the day’s highs, and within a USD 72.04-73.1/bbl range.
On the supply side, Saudi recently cut its OSP by the largest in more than two decades. However, some analysts have suggested that the cut is unlikely to boost demand, given it remains more costly than regional peers. As for today, a Reuters piece suggested that Saudi Arabia is said to be planning to expand East-West crude oil pipeline capacity by up to 2mln BPD to increase exports via the Red Sea. No move was seen in the complex following that piece.
Spot gold (-0.8%) is on the backfoot this morning, and trades at the lower end of a USD 4,116-4,168/oz range; the trough today marks the WTD low. Pressure today appears to be a bit of unwind of the strength seen in the prior week, and amidst the slightly firmer USD/firmer yields. For gold specifically, China extended gold purchases for the 20th straight month. China’s gold reserves at the end of June 2026 were 75.44 million troy ounces. Elsewhere, base metals are mixed vs broadly lower overnight. 3M LME Copper is currently flat and trades within a USD 13,325.13-13,427.2/t range.