[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks remain firmer despite early pressure while the Iranian war enters day 6
Newsquawk Staff ·
- Crude benchmarks remain underpinned by the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, despite facing mild pressure during the early European session. WTI and Brent are trading at the upper ranges of USD 74.97-78.09 and USD 81.50-84.74/bbl, respectively.
- Iran appears to show no signs of backing down, with reports that Iran is prepared for a prolonged conflict. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard also announced that it hit a US oil tanker earlier this morning, according to an SNN report.
- The crude complex faced some pressure during the early European session. Brent saw some pressure following news that the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army Central Command said Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz and is currently handling ships passing through the Strait in accordance with relevant international rules and existing agreements, CCTV reported. Further pressure was seen, following comments from the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the condition that the US presents a rewarding alternative offer, Sky News Arabia reports; adds no message was sent to the US to end the conflict.
- However, Brent did pare back some of those losses and remains in the green thus far in the European session as the nuclear abandonment was reportedly during the pre-war US-Iran talks as opposed to a fresh update.
- Sticking with the Middle East, US officials have discussed sending special operations teams into Iran to target senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials and people familiar with Iran's nuclear programme, Middle East Eye reported overnight, citing a Gulf official.
- Elsewhere, the EU is reportedly considering joint defence bonds amid concerns around the Iran war, Welt reports; a proposal is to be presented; defence bonds could be backed by member states. The EU is also reportedly mulling aid to fix Ukraine's oil plant at the centre of its loan delay.
What it means
Crude oil prices remain relatively stable despite some early pressure, underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The situation with Iran suggests a potential for continued conflict, particularly with aggressive military rhetoric and actions reported, thereby maintaining a supportive backdrop for oil prices. Additionally, the EU's considerations for joint defense strategies signal increasing regional volatility, which could have lasting implications for energy markets and related assets.
- Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Iran says Iranian officials believe that Trump wants to bring the nuclear issue into the negotiations, which Iran rejects
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the US could take place as early as November 10th
- US Midterms (6 days out): Florida flips to a Republican early-vote lead and Kansas narrows further; Crystal Ball shifts House and Senate races towards Democrats
- Israeli election results show Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats, Eisenkot's bloc with 47 and Arab parties with 19, following the counting of all votes excluding double-envelope ballots, i24 reports
- Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesman says protocol for building small reactors with Russia is being finalized
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