[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks slip as Trump suggests Iran wants a deal

Newsquawk Staff · 9 Jul 2026, 09:15 UTC

Focus remains on the turbulent geopolitical situation. Overnight, the US struck various regions in Iran, aiming to degrade the IRGC’s ability to attack commercial ships. Iran responded with its own attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Following the strikes, US President Trump said that Iran called a short while ago, and that they want to make a deal. Details are light at this stage, and it remains to be seen whether a call actually took place, and whether Trump was truthful of Iran seeking a deal. For now, market sentiment is positive, with traders focusing in on: a) Trump’s deal comments, b) no large-scale war so far, c) the Strait remaining open. On the latter point, whilst ships continue to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported that that some war insurers advised shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after the latest attacks.
WTI (-1%) and Brent (-1.1%) are extending lower this morning, after trading with mild strength overnight. Brent Sept’26 trades at the lower end of a USD 76.90-79.21/bbl range. Markets remain in backwardation (USD 0.40/bbl), but only marginally so – and towards recent troughs.
Spot gold (+0.9%) trades slightly firmer this morning, thanks to the softer USD and lower energy prices. Currently holding above the USD 4.1k/oz mark, and trades within a USD 4,054-4,118/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the green, following the positive risk tone. 3M LME copper trades at the upper end of a USD 13,241-13,447/t range. Elsewhere, for Lithium markets, reports have suggested that Chile’s lithium exports have almost tripled Y/Y.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 21 Oct, 10:29 UTC · what it led with

Pakistan Army Chief Munir brought the "final warning" from the United States to Iranian officials, which called on Iran to submit to the US demands for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.
The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.

Read the whole note Free to read.

Newsquawk Daily

Get the next one free, by email.

What moved overnight, where stocks, bonds, currencies and oil stand, and what’s due today. Written by our analysts.

Both market-open notes, EU and US, every weekday. No account needed. Unsubscribe any time.

If you trade

This headline was on the Newsquawk live feed at 08:55 UTC.

Use the Platform opens our news terminal in your browser, with the live headline feed. It’s news, not a broker.

Use the Platform

Free. No signup, no card.

Case studies

Headlines that moved markets

Energy headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

See all 183

More on this story

Make Newsquawk a preferred source on GoogleSelect this to see Newsquawk more often in Top Stories when you search Google.

More on this story

Related headlines